For die-hard FlashReport politicos, I thought I would take a few minutes and walk you through “Jon’s Guide to Republican Primaries” – a “cheat sheet” of sorts – with some predictions on my part on what promises to be a very low turnout election (thanks Fabian!)…
I should add for the vast majority of FR readers who are not “insiders” – this column might be a bit hard to digest. There is a facet of our readership who “lives” this stuff, and will appreciate all of this. They are the intended audience for this piece.
First and foremost, and this may go without saying, there are no incumbents that are up for re-election this year to Congress, Senate or the Assembly who are facing a serious primary challenger. So you can check all of those legislators off of the list.
THE UNCONTESTED (OR PRACTICALLY UNCONTESTED)
The following Republican candidates for open safe GOP or competitive general election seats slept quite well last night – they either have no challenger in their primary or if they do, it is someone nominal…
Former Board of Equalization Member Dean Andal coasts into place for a huge, nationally targeted U.S. House run in CD 11. Congratulations to Assemblyman Greg Aghazarian who is the uncontested GOP nominee this fall in SD 5 and to former Assemblyman Tony Strickland who will be the GOP standard bearer in SD 19. For State Assembly seats, former Senate Republican Leader Jim Nielson will replace Doug La Malfa in AD 2, Bill Berryhill will replace Greg Aghazarian in AD 26, Diane Harkey will replace Mimi Walters in AD 73, and Nathan Fletcher will replace George Plescia in AD 75. Also, in AD 36 Danny Gilmore walks through, in AD 78 John McCann will be the GOP nominee, and in AD 80 it will be Gary Jeandron – all of whom will be in “Ground Zero” races this November.
The next category of seats are ones where there is a primary, and it has been more than nominal, but still a front runner has emerged, and I’m prepared to go out on a limb and call the race (how embarrassing for me if I am way off, eh?).
For Congress, the easy call will be Duncan D. Hunter ascending into the CD 52 seat held by his dad since 1980. In what will be a more controversial call on my party, despite a multi-million dollar bling-bling campaign by former Congressman Doug Ose, State Senator Tom McClintock will be the GOP nominee in the CD 4 where incumbent John Doolittle is retiring. I predict a double-digit margin. Come on, McClintock’s an icon with conservative voters.
As for State Legislative races that I am prepared to call early – for the SD 33 seat of the retiring Dick Ackerman, Assemblywoman Mimi Walters will easily defeat challenger Anaheim Councilman Harry Sidhu, despite being outspent. Going so negative so early really hurt Sidhu. In AD 36, Steve Knight clearly will demolish his ersatz opponents, and in AD 54 Gabriella Holt will take out her gadfly opponent and start to prepare for a tough road to the general election. Chino Mayor Curt Hagman has been the dominant candidate in AD 60, and with an opponent who has struggled to finance his mail program in the final weeks, he will win this three-county primary. Finally, in AD 64, Brian Nestande will win with a good margin. Brian benefitted from a ton of independent expenditures while his opponent, who was loaded for bear, never marshaled the resources to mount an effective voter contact program.
FRONTRUNNER STATUS
There are three races where I am comfortable calling a “frontrunner” – someone I think has momentum and is likely to win, but yet enough uncertainty remains that I am not prepared to call them early… In the SD 29 seat of retiring Senator Bob Margett, Assemblyman Bob Huff has run a juggernaut of a voter contact program, but faces the huge name I.D. of Dick Mountjoy’s son (what was his name?). Because of the vast resource advantage of Huff, he looks good going into today’s voting. In SD 37 where Jim Battin is term-limited out, despite this being one of the most expensive and nasty legislative primaries this cycle, Assemblyman John Benoit enjoys the advantages of incumbency and being from the Coachella Valley end of this expansive district – two advantages that give him frontrunner status when you wash off all of the mud. Finally, in AD 71, the district of the retiring Todd Spitzer, Corona Councilman Jeff Miller has so outpaced opponent Rancho Santa Margarita Mayor Neil Blais in the mailboxes, with extremely effective mail emphasizing his roots in Orange County despite now residing out of the county (this district is split with ¾ of it being in “The OC” and the rest in Riverside County). Advantage: Miller.
TOO CLOSE TO CALL – THE NAIL BITERS
Finally, there are some GOP primaries that have been so competitive that yours truly is not at all comfortable trying to predict the victor. In AD 3, Supervisors Sue Horne and Dan Logue have duked this out all of the way to the finish line. In AD 10 where Alan Nakanishi is termed out, what was an early advantage for former San Joaquin County Supervisor Jack Seiglock has turned into a three-way donnybrook with candidates Dave Sander and Paul Hegyi closing strong. AD 15, where Guy Houston is moving on, will be a big battleground seat in November, but as to who will face Democrat Joan Buchanan this November? Wow – it’s a three-way slugfest. Robert Rao, Scott Kamena, and Judy Lloyd have all put out an outstanding effort – with only candidate Abram Wilson suffering due to resource scarcity. The plans of termed-out Assemblyman Bill Maze to “hand off” his seat to his wife, Rebecca, didn’t work out so well. The AD 34 donnybrook to replace him has come down to a two-horse race between Tulare County Supervisor Connie Conway and retired Deputy Sheriff Bob Smith. Conway comes from the more populated part of the district, but Smith will have spent the most in voter contact…
CONCLUSION
So there you have it, my predictions, or lack thereof in some cases. We’ll see how things play out. It’s been a crazy primary season – but I have to admit, this is my favorite time in the two-year cycle. After all, in a “weak party” system such as we have in America, political parties are largely defined by their candidates and office holders. So a lot of what happens today will be shaping the image of the Republican Party at the local level. I will tell you that it was an extraordinary challenge, as an elected officer of the California Republican Party, to stay neutral in all of these races. But, whew, I made it…
P.S. I did mention that Senator Jeff Denham will handily defeat the recall, right? He will.
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