Here is a bird’s-eye view of upcoming electoral contests in San Bernardino County
Of all the action in San Bernardino County this upcoming election primary season, three open state legislative contests are the focus of intense competition in the Republican party primary, while a trio of Democrats will duke it out for an open Democratic-held Assembly seat.
First, an overview of competitive Republican primaries.
SD 29: This seat, held by departing incumbent GOPer Bob Margett is the site of a two-way contest between Assemblymember Bob Huff (AD 60) and former Assemblymember Dennis Mountjoy (AD 59). Huff, who has garnered the lion’s share of endorsements, has shot to a lopsided advantage in fundraising for this heavily-Republican seat. The often colorful Mountjoy is counting on name recognition (as a lawmaker, his father represented similar legislative territory from 1978-2000) and steadfast support from social conservatives to propel him to victory. Huff, who is more mild-mannered than his opponent, nonetheless is a tenacious campaigner who has been campaigning for some time now. The winner of this race will take the seat in the Fall.
AD 60: Assemblymember Bob Huff’s seat. A tough two-way battle has emerged in the tri-county district between Orange County Water Board Member Larry Dick and Chino Hills Mayor Curt Hagman. As expected, Mr. Dick is endorsed by much of Orange County’s Republican establishment, while Mr. Hagman is backed by leading GOP figures from his home county of San Bernardino. The winner of this campaign likely depends on who wins the “neutral” county – the portion of the district in Los Angeles County. Although Curt Hagman represents the constituency’s largest city, Chino Hills contains just 13% of the district’s primary vote – meaning he will have to cut in to Larry Dick’s presumed bastion of support in Orange County.
Watch for both campaigns to focus on the “neutral” county in the 60th – Los Angeles. Unlike 2004, which drew two candidates from the LA County portion, this campaign features no serious candidate from Los Angeles County.
AD 34: The contest for Republican Bill Maze’s Assembly seat is wide open. Featuring a cast including the incumbent’s wife Becky Maze, retired law enforcement officer Bob Smith, and Tulare County Supervisor Connie Conway this campaign is expected to be a donnybrook. The district’s demographics make retail campaigning unlike any other Assembly District, as the seat’s boundaries stretch from the San Joaquin Valley to the Arizona state line. More on this race later….
AD 61: The seat of retiring 81-year-old Assemblymember Nell Soto (get well, Nell!) is in little jeopardy of falling to Republican hands (did I just write that?) as phenomenally popular Ontario Mayor Paul Leon declined a stand for this open seat. As a result, the most conservative party activist in San Bernardino county, Traditional Values Coalition lobbyist and USC football fan extraordinaire Ben Lopez, likely will once again be the GOP’s standard bearer against the expected Democrat nominee, Pomona Mayor Norma Torres. The 61st is a district with a Republican registration of just over 30 percent. In other news, Democrats will soon welcome Norma Torres to their legislative members’ ranks come December.
ADs 59, 62, 63, 65: All San Bernardino County legislators are safe for re-election. No one more so than freshman Democrat Wilmer Amina Carter (AD 62), who faces minimal opposition for her party’s nomination in June and faces no Republican challenger in November. All other lawmakers up for re-election (Paul Cook, Bill Emmerson, Anthony Adams) face opponents in name only. Emmerson will easily dismiss the same Democrat opponent he crushed in ‘06, a Yucaipa-based wedding DJ who is openly liberal.
Likewise, GOP Senator Bob Dutton (SD 31) will coast to re-election.
Next report: A blog on San Bernardino County’s upcoming Congressional races.
March 14th, 2008 at 12:00 am
Assembly District 61 has 2 other Republicans running, one is more pragmatic and one is more identical to Mr.Lopez.
I do agree that registration has not been kind where despite how much money was spent, despite what type of Republican runs we have not gotten higher than 37.5%.