State Senator Tom McClintock is so popular with California Republicans that a lot of people, joking around, say that he could win a primary for any Republican office anywhere in the Golden State.
Well, if we needed some proof that this very well may be the case, you need look no further than a survey, released today, that shows Tom McClintock RUNNING AWAY with the GOP nomination for Congress in the 4th District, where incumbent John Doolittle is retiring. The survey, commissioned by Ted Costa and long-time McClintock confidant John Stoos over at Constitutional Advocates, and conducted by the very reputable Moore Information public opinion research firm, shows some pretty powerful numbers for the termed-out State Senator.
The survey of 300 registered Republicans in this conservative Republican district that is east and north of Sacramento was conducted Monday and Tuesday, and showed that McClintock with 43% of the primary vote followed distantly by Doug Ose at 11% and Rico Oller with 6%.
[The memo on the survey results, and the questions asked, are attached below.]
Of course, the major issue at hand right now — Tom McClintock has made no public statements to anyone that he is even thinking about running for this safe Republican seat.
Up to this point, the assumption has been that it would be a two-way donnybrook between former popular conservative State Senator Rico Oller, and moderate former Congressman Doug Ose. If McClintock were to get into the race, I suspect that he would clear the field. I cannot imagine Oller continuing a campaign, since McClintock and he share the same base (hence Rico’s lower numbers in the survey above) but it would be nearly impossible given McClintock’s high name ID and recent statewide run for office for Rico to out-conservative McClintock.
Would Ose stay in the race against McClintock? That’s a good question. As a wealthy businessman, he has a lot of resources to throw into the mix. But McClintock himself would raise a boatload of funds, and I don’t know if all of the money in the world could overcome McClintock’s natural advantages.
So the million dollar question is this: Does Tom McClintock want to be a Congressman? I know that Tom’s long-term interest has always been in California politics, not federal. But clearly he would immediately become a leader amongst House Republicans, providing them with some much needed principled counsel and leadership. And, of course, we cannot escape the precedent recently made by Governor Bobby Jindahl of Louisiana, who was elected to his state’s top post, while serving as a Member of Congress.
One thing is certain — this survey from a reputable firm has now put all eyes onto McClintock. I think that it will be very hard for the other candidates – especially Rico Oller – to campaign going forward effectively until McClintock decides what he wants to do. So actually if I would the self-funding Doug Ose, at this point, I would want McClintock to take as long as possible to make up his mind…
As for McClintock — the conventional wisdom was that he was gearing up for a two-year campaign to succeed Bill Leonard on the State Board of Equalization — a practical shoo-in for McClintock. But perhaps the allure of being able to go straight into the House without two-years off, and being part of Congress during a very interesting time would appeal to him. Then again, we can all imagine the havoc wreaked on a family (Tom has two young children) of the bi-coastal life of a California Member of Congress.
Well, one thing is certain — this survey and the potential candidacy of Tom McClintock is big news in Congressional District 4! We’ll see how it shakes out.