I have been too optimistic in my reports on McCain’s acceptance at CPAC.
I spent some time last night and today looking for real and enthusiastic support for McCain among CPAC participants. There is indeed some such support, for example my fellow American Conservative Union Board member Charlie Black is indeed one of McCain’s campaign spokesmen and strategists. But the fact is, where McCain does have support, it seems more "resigned" or "grudging" than enthusiastic.
For sure, McCain got a great response, and gave a great speech on Thursday, timed as it was just a few hours after and at the same forum that his chief opponent, Mitt Romney, chose to announce the suspension of his campaign. McCain made the case, logically, that his record reflects he is a mainstream conservative.
But plenty of people here are not buying it, and not just the small percentage of the usual kooks at the fringes of the conference. While the mood here is definitely not gloomy, and people seemed fired up against Hillary and Obama, in talking to people I am sure McCain has not completely "closed the deal" with conservative troops. And I confess I was wishing that would happen for the good of the country.
For example, there was word circulating this afternoon that Huckabee "crushed" McCain in the Kansas caucuses today. I don’t know if he did or didn’t, as you hear lots of rumors at these things, but the Huckabee win seemed very welcome to most who talked about it, even one person who told me earlier in the day that Huckabee’s speech to CPAC "seemed flat and full of platitudes." His attention immediately turned to the possibility of a "brokered convention" that would "stop McCain."
I think a contributing factor in all this may have been events such as the "unofficial" appearances of Ann Coulter at CPAC. Coulter was not officially invited to speak at this year’s CPAC in response to a perception by the organizers that she selfishly used CPAC last year to stir controversy and promote her book sales by referring to John Edwards as a "fag." Though not on the official agenda, a couple of cosponsoring organizations scheduled side-receptions at the Omni Shoreham during CPAC featuring Coulter. These receptions were extremely well attended, especially by students, who waited in long lines to get a book and autograph from Coulter. In her talks at these events, Coulter repeated her recent controversial messages that she would rather vote for Obama or Hillary than McCain, and when she said as much, she always received a huge response. Clearly, her conservative audience will not be following her exact advice, but judging from her popularity at the conference in these "unofficial" meetings, McCain is hardly being accepted with the enthusiasm his campaign would probably prefer.
Complicating things further is the fact that CPAC felt compelled today to release its "straw poll" of participant’s preferences for President, and Romney won by a mile. The same Romney whose campaign is "suspended."
There are other considerations complicating the matter more broadly for conservatives. Muriel Coleman, my fellow American Conservative Union board member from the state of Wisconsin, told me today that with Romney out of the race and party leaders pushing for a McCain coronation, turn-out in the Wisconsin Republican primary on February 19 could be affected in a way that hurts conservatives chances for winning state and local offices. Conservatives who don’t have a presidential candidate, she said, may just stay home. This might repeat itself in other late primary states.
I was reminded of my service on the 1976 Reagan delegation to the Republican National Convention. After Ford beat Reagan, we all got a chance to vote on a Vice-Presidential candidate. A group in the California delegation started to form to support Senator Jesse Helms. But before we got anywhere we were told in no uncertain terms by Lyn Nofziger "that we had to vote for Bob Dole because Ford wants Dole" and Ronald Reagan did not want to cross Ford’s decision. So our votes were recorded for Dole. Nobody ever really asked us what our votes were, either.
That was my experience with grudging resignation in politics. I am not grudgingly resigned to a McCain Presidency. Under the circumstances, I think he will be a fine President and I support him most enthusiastically. Under the circumstances. However, as I have been talking to people towards the end of this CPAC, I am reminded of that 1976 Republican National Convention in Kansas City, and how the Reagan delegates felt by the end of it. I am hoping the result will not be the same in November 2008 as they were in November 1976. Our country is in a far more dangerous world today than it was in 1976, and I am urging my fellow conservatives to really think hard about the consequences of this election, because as John McCain has said, it will indeed be a consequential election.
February 10th, 2008 at 12:00 am
As a CPAC attendee, let me lay out the forward-looking reality:
1. Anyone who wants to shut down the Republican campaigning now by anointing Sen. McCain does not have the party’s health at heart. We need to keep up the ENTHUSIASTIC debate on issues of who would be best for the country. We can’t waste 6 months of downtime until the September convention.
2. Sen. McCain would do well to stop making his campaign about himself instead of what the public wants. He needs to “feel the public’s pain.” Otherwise he is doomed to the fate of Sen. Bob Dole who thought that repeating his name would make people vote for him.
3. Remember that Gov. Romney has 300 delegates for the convention. He could be the kingmaker still.
4. Gov. Huckabee should be encouraged to keep on organizing and motivating the base. Such an inspiring leader should be urged to keep organizing for many years of conservative activism. Nobody has been able to do what he has done in so little time with so little money. Yes, it’s the message. And yes, he is a marathoner. Get his book “From Hope to Higher Ground” for an instructive read.