The dynamics of the race for the 71st Assembly District have changed dramatically in the last few weeks.  The 71st takes in a large parts of Orange County and parts of Riverside County.

Until just a few weeks ago there were four candidates (three of whom were from OC).  Now there are just two, Neil Blais a Rancho Santa Margarita councilman and Fire Authority Board Member from Orange County (a Probolsky Research client) and Corona councilman and Transportation Commissioner Jeff Miller  from Riverside County.  Both candidates are members of their respective county Republican Central Committees.

There has been a fair amount of back and forth regarding the two campaigns finances, so I thought I would set the record straight with some factual analysis of the race.

FACT:   Neil Blais raised $124,714 in individual contributions during the latest period.  That is without any loans – personal or otherwise.  Jeff Miller raised $90,019

FACT:   Neil Blais also loaned his campaign an additional $100,000 – like most winning GOP Assembly candidates have done in the past.

FACT:   Jeff Miller who had previously been the top earner went from first-to-worst fund raiser in the 71st Assembly District.  Neil Blais now  has more available "cash on hand" than Jeff Miller.

FACT:   Seventy-five (75%) percent of the district’s GOP Primary voters come from Orange County. The Orange County candidate has a distinct advantage.

FACT:   From early on, Jeff Miller’s campaign had smartly explained that the Orange County vote would be split among 3 or 4 candidates – that is no longer the case and cuts deeply into the Miller strategy.

FACT:   Neil Blais is now the ONLY Orange County candidate.

FACT:   Jeff Miller will need to significantly outspend Neil Blais in order to be competitive.

This entry was posted on Monday, February 4th, 2008 at 12:00 am and is filed under Blog Posts.