SOME THOUGHTS ON LAST NIGHT’S DEBATE
- Much has been written about last night’s debate, which you can find on our blog, on the main news page, and elsewhere around the internet. I will just make a few observations, take them for what they are worth:
- CNN should have dropped the pretenses of inviting Ron Paul to the debate as an equal candidate — I’ve never seen a serious politician with millions of supporters around the country treated with less respect. Anyone ever heard of equal time?
- Mitt Romney needed to keep John McCain and his positions on issues at the center of this debate — and he didn’t.
- John McCain, as the presumptive front-runner needed to keep his cool, and except for the Reagan question at the end, did just that.
- Mike Huckabee continued to demonstrate a level of charm that continues to make him popular enough to be a real pain to Romney.
- Ron Paul’s reference to the gold standard immediately made everyone think, "Nicholas Cage in National Treasure."
- The seemingly endless McCain-Romney showdown on Romney’s alleged use of the word "timetables" in the context of U.S. involvement in Iraq served only to emphasize that this has turned into a two-man race.
- John McCain wriggled like a fish on a hook on the immigration question, but the fish got off the hook – he never had to admit his support for amnesty.
- Huckabee nailed the Reagan question for a strong close.
- Hardcore Romney supporters all think Romney won. The McCaniacs think he won.
- I am neutral in the race, and I think that no one was the winner — which, in itself, is a win for the frontrunner – John McCain.
ARNOLD’S ENDORSEMENT OF MCCAIN
It has been widely reported that later this morning, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is going to endorse the candidacy of John McCain. This immediately raises the question about whether this endorsement is helpful for the Senator’s efforts in California (and elsewhere) and what to do with it.
Well, conventional wisdom is that the endorsement itself is a good thing — McCain will be outspent by Governor Romney many times over (Or will he? See my comment further below on this point), and so there is nothing more important for the campaign of the Arizona Senator than to show momentum, and to continue to wrack up earned media where he can. We’ve all see the "celebrity status" of Governor Schwarzenegger make him a darling for the media – I’m sure this endorsement will be no different.
I suspect at this point that most moderate GOPers in California have or are in the process of lining up behind McCain. While Giuliani enjoyed a breadth of support from center-right to far right, I feel confident that the center-right folks will follow Rudy’s lead, and back McCain. So, that said, the group of folks that John McCain is really targeting for support are conservatives. You saw that in the debate last night with McCain’s assault on Romney for changing his views on key issues (a righteous hit by the way).
If John McCain thinks that Arnold Schwarzenegger is super-popular with conservatives right now, then he definitely has been checked-out on California state politics. Right now, most conservatives around the state are anywhere between shocked and angry at the Governor’s complete 180 on the issue of taxes. Arnold Schwarzenegger on the campaign trail (both in the 2003 recall election, as well as during the 2006 campaign) repeated over and over and over again that he would not raise taxes. Yet, last year he signed into law a bill by Fabian Nunez that increased the car tax, and then along with Nunez introduced a government-healthcare plan, the center piece of which was a massive tax on businesses (the largest single tax increase on businesses in the history of California) as well as a payroll tax, and a tax on tobacco. (In contrast, by the way, to Governor Crist of Florida who championed and passed a $9 billion property tax cut last week). This is on top of a few other sore issues for conservatives — his quest to increase regulations in California in the name of fighting "global warming" — his ongoing appointments of literally hundreds of Democrats to key positions in his administration and to state boards and commissions — and his support for weakening term limits by supporting Proposition 93.
This isn’t to say that Arnold Schwarzenegger doesn’t have "star power" — but at a time when Republicans in the Golden State are trying to try and determine who is an authentic conservative, today’s bear hug from Arnold Schwarzenegger may not help McCain too much in that regard.
Finally, there is the question of what John McCain DOES with this endorsement. The irony is that Schwarzenegger’s endorsement might be the most helpful outside of California, where the Governor is much more the "celebrity" than here in the Golden State, where it would appear that he is not the most effective salesman. I base this conclusion on the fact that Governor Schwarzenegger has endorsed several statewide ballot measures, recorded television commercials for them, and you cannot see them on T.V. To be more specific, the Governor taped an ad in support of approving four Indian Gambling Compacts (Props. 94-97), the ads ran for a few days, and then they were more or less pulled. My sources told me that the ad with the Governor just wasn’t moving the numbers like they had hoped it would. The Governor also (unfortunately) endorsed Fabian Nunez’ "Big Lie" Initiative, Prop. 93, and cut a commercial for them. After just a brief period of time, those ads were also dropped in favor of one that briefly highlights the Governor’s support at the very end.
Governor Schwarzenegger is none too popular with conservatives these days, and if these ballot measure campaigns are any anecdotal evidence, Arnold may not be too effective at pushing the popularity he enjoys with some into other causes (and perhaps candidates).
Nevertheless, look for a CNN-led press frenzy over the Governor’s endorsement of McCain, and their "let’s fight global warming together" love fest. Momentum is important, and Arnold’s support will carry him for another day towards Super Tuesday.
ROMNEY – IS HE CEDING CALIFORNIA TO MCCAIN?
On a closing note, let me make a rather elementary observation. Mitt Romney is not only wealthy, he is beyond wealthy. His net worth is so large that the $2 million investment (or thereabouts) that he needs to make to deluge TV stations in California for five days is inconsequential to him — it would not impact his lifestyle AT ALL. That said, I was looking for Romney ads after he won Michigan. Then after Nevada. Finally, we’ve come down to the wire and still, no television commitment. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that the mainstream media will be more than happy to hand John McCain a TON of free earned media. Let me go so far as to say this — if Romney doesn’t pull the trigger today on a major California media buy, it will be very hard for him to win many of California’s 170 delegates in play.
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