Earlier this week, I was the speaker at a meeting of the Tustin Area Republican Assembly, a chapter of the California Republican Assembly, located in the heart of conservative Orange County. As part of my presentation, I took the opportunity to survey the audience of around fifty people as to whom they were supporting for President. I ran through the names — Giuliani, Romney, McCain, Paul, Huckabee. It was easy to see that the vast majority of the folks in the room did not raise their hands for any of the candidates. So I asked the group about that. From the feedback I received, it was clear that to the overwhelming majority of this group of core Republican activists, none of the candidates were conservative enough. Fault was found with each one.
But while I think that the activists in this club are representative of many conservatives, they certainly are not representative of all conservatives. So, of those conservative activists who have endorsed candidates, who are they supporting? To be honest with you, as I talk and e-mail with people all around California (and I do a lot of that), it literally runs the gamut. Which is to say that there is no one candidate to whom conservatives who do endorse are flocking.
When I talk to these who have endorsed, and ask them why they are supporting their candidate, I typically follow up by asking about a shortcoming (from a conservative perspective) of their candidate of choice, so that I can ask them why, taking that into account, they are supporting this person. I do this because I am genuinely curious. Everyone has their "Achilles Heel" — McCain is "bad" on illegal immigration — Romney has changed his views on major policy issues which always is suspicious — Rudy has always been a moderate on social issues — Huckabee has a terrible record on taxes as Arkansas Governor — Ron Paul is so isolationist so as to district people from absorbing his other views.
Almost to a person, I get one of two responses (or both). The first is their distress/concern/anxiety about the possibility of a Hillary Clinton Presidency. They say, "We have to get behind someone in order to stop her. Candidate X may not be Ronald Reagan, but they are infinitely better than her…"
The second response is about the character or personal story of their candidate of choice. McCain is the war hero, Romney is the successful businessman, Rudy Giuliani ushered us through 9-11, Thompson (when he was in the race) acted Presidential, and Huckabee is a regular guy with whom I can identify.
Notable is what I am NOT hearing a lot from folks — and that is passionate support for their candidate of choice based on where that candidate stands on the issues of the day. Although, with all generalizations, there are exceptions. A few of them include those who are supporting McCain or Giuliani because they feel these candidates are the best to maintain the fight against radical Islamic fundamentalism, those who support anyone but McCain who are very upset about the McCain-Feingold restrictions on political speech and some on his pro-amnesty stand, and Ron Paul supporters, who only talk about ideological issues.
I guess the real question is this: Assuming that my experience early this week at the Tustin CRA meeting, while anecdotal, represents a very large number of undecided GOPers (this is supported by the ease with which I routinely come across or hear from Republicans who have not made up their mind), and given that by or on February 5th, EVERY ONE of these hi-propensity GOPers is GOING TO VOTE — who are they going to vote for?
If you can answer that question, I know five candidates running for President who would love the answer.
(Note: I spoke with State GOP Vice Chairman Tom Del Becarro, with whom I serve on the California Republican Party Board of Directors, and he has spoken to 25 GOP groups since November and says that his experiences have been similar to mine with the Tustin group. By the way, as elected officers of the CRP, Tom an I have personally refrained from endorsing any candidate in the GOP primary for President.)
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