It’s early, but not too early to chew on some fodder.  The San Diego Police Officers Association has released a citywide poll (conducted by Dresner, Wickers & Associates) showing Mayor Jerry Sanders leading Steve Francis by 20 points and Jan Goldsmith ahead of City Attorney Mike Aguirre by 13 points in respective one-on-one scenarios.  The 400-large sampling was taken the second week in January and mirrors the voter reg. throughout the city.

In the city attorney’s contest, the poll was done prior to Councilman Brian Maienschein’s announced candidacy, but lends significant credence to the contention that his entree would impact Goldsmith’s potential chance of winning a primary outright in a straight-up shot against Aguirre.  Add to that the likelihood that Aguirre — if forced into a runoff — would much rather face an incumbent SD councilmember (and all the SEC and pension debacle baggage that goes with the title) than Goldsmith.

If Aguirre’s numbers show a runoff situation, watch him do anything to keep Goldsmith from making it into the final.  On the other hand, if potential also-rans stay out, Goldsmith’s candidacy makes for a very interesting primary.

If Maienschein’s goal is that Aguirre be evacuated from office — as he indicated — his candidacy is doing nothing to achieve it.  With all due respect to Brian, whose popularity in his own district is pretty significant, it’s not enough to win citywide.  Big Mike will eat him alive in a runoff if Brian makes it that far.

Some survey excerpts:

"If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?"

MAYOR
Jerry Sanders 47%
Steve Francis  27%
Not Sure/Refused 26%

CITY ATTORNEY
Mike Aguirre 31%
Jan Goldsmith 44%
Not Sure/Refused 25%

The survey memo is attached:

This entry was posted on Wednesday, January 23rd, 2008 at 12:00 am and is filed under Blog Posts.