I saw an email from Political Vanguard that touted after the South Carolina primary and Nevada caucus "No clear front-runner; Romney 1 – McCain 1," or words to that affect.
It is true there is currently no clear front-runner in the race for the Republican nomination. But Mitt Romney didn’t really win what mattered in Nevada. And McCain’s South Carolina win was impressive, but also not quite so important where it matters. What matters is actual delegate count, which is what the primary process is really all about (because one may only be nominated the candidate of the Republican Party for President by actually winning a majority of the delegates to the Republican National Convention).
Romney’s Nevada win was not really a win in the delegate sense. The reason is, Nevada did not award any delegates as a result of the caucus. That is still an open question in Nevada. And Romney spent a lot of time in Nevada to develop this "win," even passing up opportunities to speak in California in favor of Reno audiences. It is predictable that Romney would do well in states with significant Mormon populations, such as Nevada, Utah, and Idaho. It is equally obvious that these states are not going to be the states that make the difference in the nomination process, because of their small population bases.
By my count, Romney now has about 31 delegates amassed for the convention, the biggest shot of which came in as a result of his Michigan win (19). McCain is currently the delegate leader, with about 36 delegates. He only received 7 delegates as a result of all the time and expense he spent in New Hampshire. And he even obtained more delegates than that for finishing out of the money in Michigan (8). Huckabee didn’t get any delegates out of his Iowa caucus win, and currently is fading with 7 delegates. The other candidates have received a handful more (Duncan Hunter, who pulled out of the race earlier this week, will be releasing his one delegate, from Wyoming. Hunter’s delegate is the least expense win of all the candidates, per delegate!)
There is still a long way to go to win the nomination: 1,191 is the magic number. And as we approach the important upcoming winner-take-all Republican primary in Florida, it is also clear that a win by Rudy Giuliani, who has been campaigning hard there for months, and is showing strongly in the polls, will turn the current presidential race upside down. The reason? Florida will actually be awarding delegates as a result of its primary. And when Rudy wins that primary, he will instantly be propelled to the dominant candidate in the race, with 57 delegates. In the week after Florida, Rudy will be back in New York and New Jersey, where he is very strong, and California will be poised to also deliver its delegates to the new frontrunner, America’s Mayor!
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:00 am
I think the AP delegate count, which has Romney far ahead, has a little more credibility than the Jim Lacy count. But then Jim also thinks a 4th place in the Guliani “firewall” state of Florida and running behind even in his home state and bordering state constitute “showing strongly” and being “very strong”. After Giuliani loses Florida, which is “winner take all” he’ll withdraw from the race to avoid further embarrassment in New York and New Jersey, which Giuliani got to change to “winner take all.”