One Republican Presidential candidate wins Iowa. Then fades. Another wins New Hampshire. Then still another wins Michigan. No clear frontrunner has emerged from these early, largely small state primaries. People have been saying it is an exciting and very surprising race for the Presidency in the Republican party.
Well, it is sure exciting, but perhaps not so surprising, at least to California’s Bill Simon, a key supporter of Rudy Giuliani’s campaign. I was on a call before the Michigan primary last week with Bill, and not only did he predict the outcome of that race, he also said key political advisors had been predicting the same results of these early primary states for over a year now – no clear frontrunner emerging from them. Meaning that the real decision to be made in determining the next Republican President will occur in the big state primaries to be held in the coming weeks.
And Rudy Giuliani is positioned better than any other candidate to capture the 1,191 delegates needed to become the Republican nominee. The first four primaries and caucuses produced only 54 delegates, which have to be divided among the winning candidates. Yet on January 29th, Florida will award 57 delegates to the statewide winner, and on February 5th 21 states will award 1,081 delegates (including winner-take-all contests in New York and New Jersey).
Rudy Giuliani leads in most Florida polls and has leads in New York, New Jersey, and other February 5th states. From the beginning of the campaign he has run a nationwide effort including staffs in California, Illinois, and Florida to prepare for the delegate-rich February 5th primaries. If Rudy wins in Florida, he will be the delegate leader going into February 5th and will be in the best position to capture the delegates necessary to win the Republican nomination.
I like and trust Rudy’s California team and am pleased to support the effort. Bill Simon has put great effort into what will be a historic campaign. My conservative movement friend Steve Frank is doing a wonderful job keeping activists informed on Rudy’s great record of lowering taxes and effectively managing spending in a huge city that once was thought unmanageble. Rudy is paying attention to California, and Florida, and the places where the votes are, so reset your watches, because soon it will be Rudy time!