Now that proponents of the state government forced healthcare plan have started the initiative machine, [which resembles a car crusher for the California business climate] let’s see what it will really take to implement.
-AB 1X still needs to be heard and passed by the Senate. It has to overcome California’s highest ranking ‘budget hawk’, Senate President Pro Tem Perata, who said no hearing for 1X until we figure out the $14 billion [and counting] budget black hole first. Should AB 1X actually go through a committee process and, being a health care bill, be heard in the Senate Health Committee, it will have to get thru the Chair of the Committee, Senator Sheila Kuehl.
We know Sen. Kuehl has not been happy with this bill as it is not her own bill, SB 840 that would install a single payer [you, the taxpayer] health plan. 1X does not go far enough for Sen. Kuehl, [as well as the emails I get against 1X but for SB 840]. Will there be enough votes to get it out of committee…if it’s even given a hearing? Will Sen. Kuehl convince 5 total Democrat Senators to stay off, joining the 15 sure Republican no votes, thereby coming up short of 21 to move it to the governor, should it reach the Senate floor?
By the time the governor would receive it, will the bill be substantially changed enough that the initiative language would still legally match up or have to start over the intiative with new matching language? Barring any more special term limit extension elections, that would likely push the initiative off til June 2010.
So, we’ll assume 1X passes more or less as is, the governor signs it, and the initiative moves forward for Nov ’08.
Then proponents will then have to convince:
1. California smokers, who get to pay a new $1.75 per pack tax.
2. California employees, many who have health plans already and see their employer talking to Mayflower about shipping their business elswhere.
3. Hospital employees and patients that a 4% surcharge makes sense,
Obviously the campaign for this proposal won’t be run in a vacuum with all that opposition and will likely lose. But we’ll assume it passes and becomes California law. Will it take even a full 24 hours before the lawsuits start, as this law would defy the Employment Retirement Income Security Act [ERISA] laws that Congress passed in 1974. As reported elsewhere, the multiple efforts to loophole around ERISA over the years have all failed miserably including, yet again, just last Wednesday in San Francisco, where the city mandate to force employers to provide health care coverage was tossed in federal court.
Legal history is not on the side of the proponents. ERISA was passed in part so that 50 different states wouldn’t have 50 different mandates on how multi-state employers would be forced to comply with each state’s whims. This has been upheld multiple times as this holy grail has been pursued many times by many liberal legislatures, or would-be attempts scrapped in the face of these court decisions.
You would think with all the angles the health takeover crowd has looked at to bypass ERISA, over many years in many states, it would be pretty well decided. This current crew must believe that it has the silver bullet for beating ERISA in California. [join with me in your Dr. Evil voice…"Riiiiiiiiiight"]
The last resort is with the Congress. Either give California a waiver, you know, like Hawaii has…
[They had some of these employer mandates pre-1974 ERISA so they are essentially grandfathered] Or, change the law. Not sure how many times the Congress has tried under Dem control from ’74-’94 or if they will now. If the Congress adopts the same job killing attitude as here in CA to change ERISA, will the US Senate Republicans eventually give up the 60 votes to allow a floor vote? Perhaps.
Finally it comes down then to the President. Should a California proposition pass in Nov ’08, using a well-funded deceptive campaign that hides all these assumptions that need to come true, and voters raise 3 taxes at once, it will require a president willing to sign a change of ERISA passed by Congress. I strongly doubt that a Republican president would. So, proponents, if this policy is your dream then it appears the queen of Denial, Hillary, is your dream girl.
In review-
-Pass AB 1X through a possibly hostile Senate, intact, and past the governor.
-Fool the voters into voting for 3 tax increases and that a state with a $14B budget hole should run your health care for $14B per year on Year One, who knows how much by Year 3 or 5 or 10.
-Beat ERISA in court [how many years of litigation and appeals?] OR:
-Get Congress to grant it’s favorite state an unprecedented waiver, or change the ERISA law, over Republican opposition
-Elect Hillary or someone to sign it.
It could happen. More likely is that we’ve just wasted 2 more years denying past history when we could be addressing health care reforms such as Republicans have offered that respect real world economics, employers, jobs, taxpayers, individual responsibility and liberty.