I mentioned earlier tonight in a comment to Adam Probolsky’s post on OC Blog that Rudy Giuliani is kicking butt nationally and in California for the Republican nomination for president despite some of Romney’s endorsements in places like Moreno Valley. Here is the real low-down on delegate count, including in California, and the real truth of the matter. Go Rudy!!! And be sure to read Ken Silverstein’s piece in this month’s Harper’s Magazine "Romney: How to Fabricate a Conservative."
Read this:
Associated Press
November 12, 2007
By Libby Quaid
Early momentum has been the surefire way to win modern presidential primaries …
Most of the Republican candidates are betting on this approach for 2008, but Rudy Giuliani is counting on something simpler: delegate math.
His plan is based on the fact that Florida and several other big states … are voting earlier than usual to compete for influence and attention from the candidates.
The shake-up might help Giuliani capture the nomination, even without the “must-win” early states.
“There’s never been an election like this before, where you have so many delegate-rich states coming on the heels of the early primary states, like California, like Illinois,” says Giuliani campaign manager Mike DuHaime, in an interview with The Associated Press. “It is clearly a huge amount of delegates that are available Feb. 5 in states where the mayor is leading.”
Giuliani dominates in national polls … He has big leads, too, in California, New York and Florida. …
Which states matter most, earlier ones or later, bigger ones?
[C]raig Hartwig, who lives in Mount Doro, Fla., [says] : “We’re not bandwagon people.”
This sentiment led Florida to move its primary from March to Jan. 29, four weeks after Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses.
To win the GOP nomination, a candidate must amass a majority of the 2,380 national convention delegates, most of whom are pledged to support the winner of their states or districts.
After nearly half the states hold nominating contests on Feb. 5, Giuliani, the former New York mayor, could hold a commanding lead in the delegate count.
Here’s how.
–Giuliani has wide leads in bigger states with more delegates, such as Florida (57 delegates), California (173), New York (101), New Jersey (52) and Illinois (70). He’s expected to capture Connecticut (30) and Delaware (18), too. He campaigned Monday in Missouri (58), another big prize whose senior senator, four-term Republican Kit Bond, recently endorsed Giuliani.
–Even where he doesn’t win on Feb. 5, Giuliani could still come in second and win delegates. Big states in this category might include Georgia (72), Alabama (48) or Tennessee (55). Only a few— New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware and Missouri among them –award delegates on a winner-take-all basis.
–States voting after Feb. 5, including Maryland (37), Ohio (88) and Pennsylvania (74), also hold potential for Giuliani to roll up most or some of the delegates.
Giuliani has a good shot at winning an early state or two as well. He has gained ground on former Massachusetts Gov. Romney in New Hampshire (12 delegates), where Giuliani ranks second in polls, and has battled Thompson for the lead in South Carolina (24). …
Using either strategy–momentum or simple math–Giuliani’s campaign wagers it can win.