Senate District 23 is held by Senator Sheila Kuehl (pictured left). She is currently prevented from seeking re-election due to term limits.
The district is coastal stretching from Oxnard in Ventura County to Malibu and then down to UCLA. Half the population is in Los Angeles but also includes the entire cities of Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Malibu, and West Hollywood. (See a map here.)
Governor Schwarzenegger won the seat in the 2003 recall but only tied Angelides last November. Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner came within three points of Bustamante in 2006 and is the only Republican to come close in the last decade. The Republican on the ballot here is less than a speed bump for the winner of the Democratic primary.
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October 9th, 2007 at 12:00 am
It is always interesting to see a Republican consultants take on a heavily Democratic seat, but I think it is early yet to make either candidate this type of favorite in the race.
However if you disagree and think the race is just about over and you are willing to offer odds in line with your prediction, I will happily cover a bet of any reasonable amount.
October 9th, 2007 at 12:00 am
This is the successor seat to the Senate district that routinely promoted
Santa Barbara-based state Assembly members to the Senate.
That’s how Jack O’Connell got there for instance, and Gary Hart before him.
It would have been natural if Assemblywoman Hannah Beth Jackson had
assumed SHE would do the same one day.
But then …. a funny thing happened on the way to Redistricting in 2001.
Mysteriously, this senate district was shifted south…and that shift gave
the Shaft to Hannah Beth Jackson, putting Sheila Kuehl in the driver’s
seat.
HBJ then had a choice: Lose the senate primary to Kuehl in this district,
or lose a runoff to Tom McClintock in the adjoining GOP senate spot.
Hannah Beth Jackson had done her best for the politically correct cause,
and then she gets side-swiped off the road by the Kuehl top fuel Eliminator.
Isn’t it DEPLORABLE that these things happen in Sacramento?… :(
p.s. if this was Vegas, Fran Pavley would be a 3-touchdown favorite.
October 9th, 2007 at 12:00 am
That’s almost as much as the Trojans were favored over Stanford this weekend isn’t it?
October 10th, 2007 at 12:00 am
Good one, Tom!
But I’m pretty sure Fran Pavley does not have a broken finger.
October 10th, 2007 at 12:00 am
Touche. However it should also be pointed out that if term limits reform passes, this race will not happen at all.