Senate District 23 is held by Senator Sheila Kuehl (pictured left). She is currently prevented from seeking re-election due to term limits.
The district is coastal stretching from Oxnard in Ventura County to Malibu and then down to UCLA. Half the population is in Los Angeles but also includes the entire cities of Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Malibu, and West Hollywood. (See a map here.)
Governor Schwarzenegger won the seat in the 2003 recall but only tied Angelides last November. Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner came within three points of Bustamante in 2006 and is the only Republican to come close in the last decade. The Republican on the ballot here is less than a speed bump for the winner of the Democratic primary.
This is not a district that is going to be electing someone like Senators Hollingsworth or Cogdill any time soon. The environment is the dominating issue. It also has a large gay community in Hollywood and West Hollywood.
SD 23 has a demographic that causes some interesting political activity. The west side has a large Jewish community. During the 2000 primary my now-wife lived in the district. I would get to see the mail sent out by Kuehl and former Assemblyman Wally Knox as they competed in the primary. My wife’s maiden name is Hoffman. She would get mail from both candidates with subtle and not so subtle Jewish themes. It was the type of mail not seen in a Republican primary.
Late last year the race appeared to be a three way competition between Assemblyman Lloyd Levine, former Assemblywoman Fran Pavley, and former Assemblyman Paul Koretz.
The first casualty in the race was Koretz. Although he planned to run for the State Senate in 2008 and was considered at least partially formidable he decided to run for the West Basin Municipal Water District in November 2006 — and lost by 477 votes. If you can’t beat Ed Little for Water Board then you can’t beat Levine or Pavley for Senate. He may have an account open but he is not going anywhere.
So we are left with two serious candidates.
Assemblyman Lloyd Levine (pictured left) was elected to the Assembly in 2002. He represents a very small portion of the Senate district – probably less than 5%. The overlap is the area north of Hidden Hills. At the last reporting period he was sitting on $192,958 among three accounts.
Meanwhile, Fran Pavley (pictured right) has been out of the Assembly since December 2006. The district she used to represent is almost entirely within the Senate district. Despite being out of office she has been in the news and continues raising money. This woman has come to be the icon in the environmental community. She is sitting on $508,406 and has pretty much every liberal endorsement she could want.
Consider this. During the first half of 2007 former Assemblywoman Pavley actually raised more money than current Assemblyman Levine. That is not a good sign for Levine.
It is early, but I think this is one of those races that is pretty easy to call. Pavley has a larger base, has captured more key endorsements, and will likely have more money for the primary.
Levine tries everything he can to win this race by press release. The problem is that every gimmick he comes up with is trumped by a substantive accomplishment by Pavley.
Pavley has this thing pretty much wrapped up. The California business community is not thrilled with Pavley but she is the right fit for this district and there isn’t anyone that can stop her.
Calling it now — Pavley gets more than 60% of the vote if it is a two candidate race and she gets more than 50% in a three way race.
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