This is a particularly tough time for Congressman John Doolittle. Doolittle (pictured to the right) is in the midst of dealing with the taint of an FBI investigation of Congress that has included family business dealings with now-disgraced and imprisoned ex-lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Our hearts to go out to John and his family at this time. In America, we have a strong tradition in our courts that you are innocent until you are proven guilty. I would tell FR readers that having known John for nearly two decades, I don’t believe that he is guilty of any crimes. That having been said, Congressman Doolittle is facing a trial — but it is in the court of public opinion… And at a time when the public’s bias is not in the favor of Washington politicians.
DOOLITTLE’S NEGATIVES OVER 50%
Over the weekend, I had an opportunity to see some results of some polling that was done recently in Congressional District 4. The survey, taken by very reputable pollster Chris Wilson of Wilson Research Strategies was taken of 600 voters in the District. This is the first time that I have seen any objective polling numbers that tell of the very large uphill battle facing Congressman John Doolittle in his bid for another term, and outline some significant trouble for the GOP in the General Election next year if Doolittle is the nominee. Let me remind FR readers that this particular U.S. House seat was specifically drawn to elect a Republican and has always been considered a "safe" seat…
- In a one-on-one match up, if the election were held today, Democrat Charlie Brown gets 51% of the vote to Congressman Doolittle’s 31%.
- Those surveyed were also asked if they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Doolittle. Respondents came back with 28% favorable and 56% unfavorable.
- In the survey, GOP primary voters were asked whether Congressman Doolittle should run for another term. 33% of those asked said he should. A staggering 50% said that the Congressman should either resign or should not run again.
I did have an opportunity to see some other interesting data from this survey, which I may be able to share with FR readers soon.
DOOLITTLE’S CHALLENGERS – THE GAINES CANDIDACY
Until just a few days ago, Doolittle was looking at two relatively unknown primary challengers — a councilman from the city of Auburn by the name of Mike Holmes, a self-described moderate, and Iraq War veteran Eric Egland, a conservative who claims to have raised over $100,000 in his bid. As of last Thursday, however, the primary field has become a lot more crowded with the entry of popular conservative Assemblyman Ted Gaines. Gaines brings a lot more to the table in terms of fundraising ability, and name I.D. The freshman legislator served for many years as a member of the Placer County Board of Supervisors.
I caught up to Gaines (pictured to the left), and asked him why he was forming an exploratory committee looking at the 4th CD, and he told me, "John Doolittle creates a problem for our party in terms of being victorious and keeping a seat in 2008. Even if he wins the primary, I think it will be very difficult for him to win the seat in November."
Gaines went on to express his concerns about a Democrat getting elected, "I am concerned about losing the seat to a Nancy Pelosi clone like Charlie Brown. This is a conservative seat, and it should be represented by a Conservative."
Gaines talked about over-regulation from Washington, D.C., and illegal immigration. He also deliver a rebuke of earmarks and pork spending in Washington that are out of control saying, "Our district needs a Congressman that will reject this pattern of irresponsible and wasteful spending."
Of course, here at the FlashReport, we’ve called for Doolittle and others that have embraced and voted for shamefully egregious pork earmarks to change their ways. Doolittle recently received a deplorable 2% rating from the Club for Growth for voting for only 4 of 50 floor amendments to eliminate egregious pork spending earmarks from Appropriations Bills. His record on pork spending flies in the face of what has otherwise been commendable, conservative record in the House.
We reached out to Congressman Doolittle for a response to Gaines’ candidacy, and Doolittle told us in statement, "…After spending the last month talking to local voters I have seen strong support for my candidacy and a strong desire to focus on solving problems instead of plotting for political advantage. Ted Gaines has let political ambition and bad judgment convince him that he will rescue the Republican Party. I will gladly place before the voters my record of over thirty years of service to the Republican Party to Ted Gaines’ less than one year"
DOOLITTLE’S CHALLENGE – THE CHALLENGE FOR THE GOP
It remains to be seen whether Congressman Doolittle will be able to mount a successful defense against his primary challenges — especially the considerable threat posed to him by the very able Assemblyman Gaines. But the bigger question in the minds of everyone I talk to is whether Congressman Doolittle can demonstrate sooner than later that he can win a general election battle, without a speedy and quick end to this federal probe (I worked in law enforcement for many years, and have never found the Feds to be speedy about anything they do). Unfortunately for 
Congressman Doolittle, he is caught up in a terrible situation. Voters, and especially Republican voters, are more cynical now than ever. Thanks to Duke Cunningham (pictured to the right), Tom Delay, Mark Foley, Bob Ney, William Jefferson, Larry Craig and so forth, even the perception of impropriety can erect an unassailable barrier to re-election.
I will close by reiterating that I do not believe, in my heart, that John Doolittle has committed any crime. That having been said, I truly believe that the burden is on him to demonstrate how he is going to be able to win this seat next November. If he cannot do this credibly enough to keep Gaines and other high-caliber opponents out of his primary, then this will likely be his last term in Congress.
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