A third update on the saga of the poor ol’ Term Limits Weakening Initiative… Looks like the odds are getting pretty long that a manual count can be avoided… ’tis such a shame… (not) Just in from CapWeekly’s Anthony York, update #3:
Just got off the phone with the County Registrar’s office in San Berdoo. Drumroll please…..
61.7 percent!
Not exactly where proponents need to be.
Once again, quick math time:
At last count, 50 counties have reported their random sample numbers for a total of 518,233. The remaining counties have about 102,000 signatures out standing, 83,000 of which are in San Bernardino County. AT 61.7 percent, the San Berdoo projection is 51,211. That brings the total in 51 counties to 569,444
The total needed to avoid the full count is 763,790
The total needed to even TRIGGER a full count, and to not fail outright is: 659,637
LA is hanging out there with 264,000 signatures. Six other counties have about 21,000 additional votes. That gives us about 285,000 signatures remaining.
Estimates from LA place the validity rate at about 63 percent, which would be 166,320. If that’s the case, it would be nearly impossible to avoid the full count.
In order to avoid the full count, proponents would need 194,000 valid signatures from the remaining 285,000. That’s a validity rate of 68 percent. The overwhelming majority of that vote is in LA. If LA does not come back with a 68 percent validity rate, we’re going to a full count…
Time to start turning our attention to the Secretary of State. Let’s see if and when Debra Bowen calls for the full count. With the Labor Day weekend this weekend, it’s likely such a count would not begin before Tuesday, Sept. 4. That gives proponents 18 working days to get 1.1 million signatures counted…
This email was drafted somewhat hastily to keep you all informed. As always, somebody please check the math…
61.7 percent!
Not exactly where proponents need to be.
Once again, quick math time:
At last count, 50 counties have reported their random sample numbers for a total of 518,233. The remaining counties have about 102,000 signatures out standing, 83,000 of which are in San Bernardino County. AT 61.7 percent, the San Berdoo projection is 51,211. That brings the total in 51 counties to 569,444
The total needed to avoid the full count is 763,790
The total needed to even TRIGGER a full count, and to not fail outright is: 659,637
LA is hanging out there with 264,000 signatures. Six other counties have about 21,000 additional votes. That gives us about 285,000 signatures remaining.
Estimates from LA place the validity rate at about 63 percent, which would be 166,320. If that’s the case, it would be nearly impossible to avoid the full count.
In order to avoid the full count, proponents would need 194,000 valid signatures from the remaining 285,000. That’s a validity rate of 68 percent. The overwhelming majority of that vote is in LA. If LA does not come back with a 68 percent validity rate, we’re going to a full count…
Time to start turning our attention to the Secretary of State. Let’s see if and when Debra Bowen calls for the full count. With the Labor Day weekend this weekend, it’s likely such a count would not begin before Tuesday, Sept. 4. That gives proponents 18 working days to get 1.1 million signatures counted…
This email was drafted somewhat hastily to keep you all informed. As always, somebody please check the math…
August 30th, 2007 at 12:00 am
This is interesting, Jon, especially since my comment is coming in before your post in terms of, you know, time on the clock.
If you had not so damanged your credibility over the past several weeks, some other folks might be paying attention.
August 30th, 2007 at 12:00 am
How does a fine journalist like Bill Bradley, widely respected on all sides,
metamorphose into the Nelson Muntz character on the Simpsons, saying
“Ha Ha”, to Jon Fleischman?
Can we get a re-write here? … Puzzled in sunny San Diego. :(
August 30th, 2007 at 12:00 am
So you’ve stopped down to attacking our host because his clock is a bit fast, huh?
August 31st, 2007 at 12:00 am
Well, not exactly, sport.
Jon did for the second time falsely claim to have broken the Susan Kennedy story. And had to apologize for it for a second time. After I again reminded him of the facts.
And there was the little matter of some wasted weeks, which ended in not much of anything, which you may have heard of.
All this adds to, shall we say, a bit of a credibility problem.
Which is why others are not paying much attention to these repeated missives.
August 31st, 2007 at 12:00 am
One thing you did not add in Jon, Democrats are in control of everything. Republicans mess up when they look at what is legal and honest… Democrats have no such filter. Democrats are Democrats, they will manufacture the signitures.
August 31st, 2007 at 12:00 am
Ken:
My past experience with local Registrars of Voters is that their
line employees are NOT partisan and will diligently work to do an
honest count.
This was heartily proven by the Gray Davis recall petition process.
August 31st, 2007 at 12:00 am
Guys, the problem with this initiative was
A) that it was an essoteric dog of a petition.
B)When it was being circulated it was the only one out there paying 75 cents a signature, not enough to make a living wage for serious petitioners to go out there to make serious money, who keep up with current events and have some sales skills.
So in conjuction you had a petition that was confusing, and difficult to explain pitched by desperate petioners. These scavengers who were often one step above homeless and lacked an education, using lines like “can I have your autograph.” and “sign this to keep me off the street.”
Many of these guys are happy with making $100 a day. With this petition they were making $30. When facing starvation, is it any wonder that some of them would pad their numbers by using names out of the phone book.