Left Coast No Longer Left Behind
The last time California figured prominently in a presidential primary cycle was in 1972 when George McGovern beat out Hubert Humphrey and captured the Democratic nomination. That marked the end of a series of dramatic California primaries, which included Bobby Kennedy’s victory over Eugene McCarthy in 1968 and Barry Goldwater’s upset of Nelson Rockefeller in 1964.
More recently, however, California’s primary has lost much of its former relevance. Owing to the primary’s late June date, both parties’ nominees have usually been decided before Californians vote. Which is one reason why the state legislature just approved a measure to move the primary up to Feb. 5, only three weeks after the Iowa caucuses.
Though state Republicans unanimously opposed the measure, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is expected to sign it. Nonetheless, the state GOP has found a way to insert an additional wrinkle. As Democrats did long ago, the California Republican Party announced this week that it’s doing away with the "winner-take-all" model for the state’s 173 delegates. Instead, delegates will be assigned based upon the results in California’s 53 congressional districts, with the winner of the popular vote in each district being awarded three delegates.
Intuit what you will from this change. According to the California GOP, not only is this a fairer model, but it will force Republican candidates to campaign in less populous districts, rather than focus all their attention and resources in the population centers of San Diego, Los Angeles and the Bay Area.
No doubt all that is true, but it also means that a non-favorite like Mitt Romney could still lose a majority of California’s districts and come away with enough delegates to eventually win the nomination. On the other hand, it probably won’t significantly alter the momentum effect a candidate gains from a strong performance in Iowa and New Hampshire. Still, a front-runner (say, Rudy Giuliani or Sen. John McCain) can expect to spend even more time and money in California if he hopes to emerge with the nomination nearly locked up.
Regardless, California has certainly reasserted its historical role on the primary stage.