Who does a California conservative support for President?
The top tier of candidates — John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Rudy Giuliani — must all overcome varying amounts of suspicion from the GOP base. The second tier of candidates — Sam Brownback, Mike Huckabee, and Jim Gilmore — have to make a credible case that they can win. Without a natural candidate around which to rally, conservatives are forced to decide which of the front-runners they can trust. The developments so far have been fascinating to watch.
My former boss McCain was the insurgent when I worked for him in 1999 and 2000, when he was anethema to a party establishment had flocked to then-Governor Bush. Eight years later, though, McCain is now the establishment candidate, using his strong support of Bush on terror and Iraq to develop an organizational and endorsement infrastructure that early front-runners have historically used to ward off challengers. Watching this year from the sidelines, it’s been interesting to watch as the same party leadership figures who couldn’t be bothered with him last time around are now lining up to join the McCain bandwagon. But conservatives are unhappy with his positions on global warming, immigration, and his signature campaign finance reform agenda. If they sign up with McCain, it will be with the same wariness that characterized their relationship with Bob Dole in the 1996 campaign.
In most election cycles, a Mormon businessman and former governor of Massachusetts who’d signed universal health car legislation would be considered the maverick alternative in the race. But in the absence of George Allen, Bill Frist, and other early casualties, Mitt Romney has established himself as the social and cultural conservative. Conservative leaders who can’t bring themselves to trust McCain are gravitating toward Romney, but his ideological evolution on abortion and other social issues has kept Romney from nailing down the base as securely as he’d like. Because Romney is such a relatively unknown quantity, conservative activists must trust their instincts on whether or not this candidate is the real deal on their issues.
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February 27th, 2007 at 12:00 am
Well, not only is Rudy Giuliani inclined to give those guys — including McCain, who I like personally and backed in 2000 and Romney, a very slick candidate — a run for their money, I would say he is your favorite in the early California Presidential primary.
I would not have said that at the end of last year.
I checked him out on the campaign trail. He’s for real. He could even beat the Democrats in what should be a good for Democrats year.
It may just be that .. It’s the Terror War, stupid.
February 27th, 2007 at 12:00 am
Perhaps, I am blinded by my own biases…but I think Tom Tancredo has just a good a chance as any of those other second tier candidates.