Who does a California conservative support for President?
The top tier of candidates — John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Rudy Giuliani — must all overcome varying amounts of suspicion from the GOP base. The second tier of candidates — Sam Brownback, Mike Huckabee, and Jim Gilmore — have to make a credible case that they can win. Without a natural candidate around which to rally, conservatives are forced to decide which of the front-runners they can trust. The developments so far have been fascinating to watch.
My former boss McCain was the insurgent when I worked for him in 1999 and 2000, when he was anethema to a party establishment had flocked to then-Governor Bush. Eight years later, though, McCain is now the establishment candidate, using his strong support of Bush on terror and Iraq to develop an organizational and endorsement infrastructure that early front-runners have historically used to ward off challengers. Watching this year from the sidelines, it’s been interesting to watch as the same party leadership figures who couldn’t be bothered with him last time around are now lining up to join the McCain bandwagon. But conservatives are unhappy with his positions on global warming, immigration, and his signature campaign finance reform agenda. If they sign up with McCain, it will be with the same wariness that characterized their relationship with Bob Dole in the 1996 campaign.
In most election cycles, a Mormon businessman and former governor of Massachusetts who’d signed universal health car legislation would be considered the maverick alternative in the race. But in the absence of George Allen, Bill Frist, and other early casualties, Mitt Romney has established himself as the social and cultural conservative. Conservative leaders who can’t bring themselves to trust McCain are gravitating toward Romney, but his ideological evolution on abortion and other social issues has kept Romney from nailing down the base as securely as he’d like. Because Romney is such a relatively unknown quantity, conservative activists must trust their instincts on whether or not this candidate is the real deal on their issues.
And then there’s Rudy Giuiliani, who most purveyors of the conventional wisdom (myself included) decided a long time ago could not mount a credible candidacy for President and therefore would probably not run. Republican primary voters just don’t nominate pro-choice, pro-gun control candidates, we all knew, and assumed that after a couple of half-hearted visits to Iowa and New Hampshire, Giuiliani would put his halo back on and go back to his consulting firm. But social conservatives also care about the war on terror, and Giuliani has leveraged his 9-11 credentials into a message that has drawn him unexpected levels of support on the primary trail.
Even given recent poll numbers that show Giuliani establishing a decent-sized lead among primary voters, it’s still reasonable to assume that the odds remain in the favor of his two more traditional rivals. But Rudy’s campaign looks more credible and more competitive than many would have predicted six months ago. He’s been picking off endorsements from conservatives like Chuck Poochigian, Curt Pringle, and Mike Antonovich, and he’s quietly putting together a sharp operation in the state. McCain made the biggest splash by bringining on Schwarzenegger re-election guru Steve Schmidt and rapid-response whiz Matt David. Romney signed up Arnold’s quiet-but-deadly research chief Jim Bognet and former CRP spokesperson Sarah Pompei. But guided by Bill Simon, Giuliani has made smart hires in rising stars Eric Beach and Brent Lowder, who orchestrated his successful several-day tour of the state earlier this month.
If there was a more traditionally conservative candidate in the race with plausible chances for the nomination, Giuliani’s candidacy might be problematic. But such is the nature of the conversation among conservative voters that the former NYC mayor’s prospects are much more plausible.
For the record, I’m unaligned and undecided in this race. So this posting shouldn’t be taken as an endorsement of Giuliani or a rejection of the other candidates. But as nothing more than an observer, the only thing more surprising than McCain and Romney as the establishment candidates is that Giuiliani is prepared to give them a run for their money among California Republican primary voters who are not usually inclined toward risk.