With California moving its presidential primary to Feb. 5 of next year, what Golden State voters think about White House politics has actually begun to matter. A new poll of likely primary voters by San Diego-based Datamar, Inc. shows the two current frontrunners to be Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani.
The poll shows Ms. Clinton with 34% of the vote, leading Barack Obama’s 24% and John Edwards’ 16%. Given Ms. Clinton’s enormous name ID advantage, her lead is not compelling. On the GOP side, pundits were startled to see former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani with 41% support, John McCain with only 17% and Mitt Romney trailing with 11%.
GOP analysts say the strong Rudy showing is likely based on recent publicity about his entering the race and his more liberal views on social issues — which play well in California. But a surprising number of conservatives also support Rudy, prompted in part by the backing of Bill Simon, son of the former Nixon Treasury Secretary and a 2002 GOP candidate for California governor.
On another front, the Datamar poll shows sinking support for Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s dramatic plan to tax employers, doctors and hospitals to create a universal health care plan. Despite claims by Team Arnold that over 70% of Californians back his approach, the Datamar poll showed a much closer result. The plan is currently favored by only 47% to 37% and the party breakdown in support will make it difficult for Governor Schwarzenegger to attract support from legislators in his own Republican Party. Democrats back Arnold’s health care initiative by a solid 60% to 25%, but his fellow Republicans vote thumbs down by 58% to 32%.
"These guys are very discerning people. When you bring something in — whether it’s a candidate, a script or a business opportunity — and they sign off on it, it’s a big deal. In Hollywood, they move in packs [and DreamWorks partners Steven Spielberg, David Geffen and Jeffrey Katzenberg] told everybody it’s OK to go with Barack instead of Hillary. It’s OK to explore your options" — California Republican fundraiser Anne Dunsmore, quoted in a Los Angeles Times report about the Obama campaign’s success in cutting into Hillary Clinton’s Hollywood support.