I tried to think of a more creative title for this post but this one just worked.
I have never liked Senator John McCain and when he made it his priority to cut and run with my constitutional rights with his so-called campaign finance reform, I realized that it was my mission to dislike him even more.
He has some (albeit likely short lived) ability to connect with the American People. That may be one for the reasons why people like Irvine Company billionaire Donald Bren and Schwarzenegger campaign manager Steve Schmidt have signed on with the mal-tempered senator from Arizona to try to make him president.
But I am a big believer in understanding people’s motivations. For Schmidt its a money play. He is hot coming off a huge win for the Governor and can command big $$s. So he went with whomever was willing pay him the big money. For Bren, sure it would nice to pick the next president two years out. But if McCain doesn’t become president, he will be in the U. S. Senate for life or Secretary of the Interior?, Bren knows having 100% of a U. S. Senator or cabinet secretary is better than a maybe president.
So as you see people jockey for position in the presidential horse race know that people are motivated by different factors. Its not always a play for the top.
Rudy for Secretary of Labor? Romney for Secretary of the Commerce? Jeb, podria ir para Veep?
See Jon Fleischman’s commentary today here describing how much support McCain is set to get out the activist Republicans in Orange County…NONE. Observant Republicans all have good reason to find McCain unfit for the office of President. Some like me write him off for McCain-Feingold. Others see him as a populist without great convictions of his own, someone who will move with the winds toward liberal ideals if that is the way the country is seemingly moving.
The average moderate to conservative voter has no business supporting McCain. The people that say they are supporting McCain in national polls are 1) Democrats 2) liberals 3) just don’t like Bush and still see McCain as an alternative and 4) don’t know him. Once voters see what McCain is really about he is done and the Senator will realize his lot in life does not include a job in the White House.
January 16th, 2007 at 12:00 am
I’m afraid you are misreading your own party.
It’s not good to let emotion govern political analysis, or to imagine that people are like you.
Don’t forget that large majorities of Californian Republican voters back Schwarzenegger on the minimum wage, climate change, etc.
January 16th, 2007 at 12:00 am
The original headline on this story was far more accurate.
But Bill, those “large majorities” typically dont vote in primaries, just as liberal Dems tend to dominate our primaries.
January 16th, 2007 at 12:00 am
First comment. I suspect Steve Schmidt could have gotten big money if he wanted it from a lot of Presidential candidates.
Second as to McCain himself, I think Bill Bradley’s point was very significant. Many years ago Lee Atwater said (According to the book “Whose Broad Stripes and Bright Stars) that he thought moderate casual voters were actually the majority in the Republican party and that one of the reasons he felt confident in the first George Bush’s ability to win the nomination was because he had a base among moderates, even though it was based in Atwater’s opinion more on reputation than fact. He also said that moderate Republicans didn’t turn out in primary elections, but that a good candidate could change that.
So my first point on 2008 is that whatever the numbers were on issues like the environment, women’s issues etc. back then, moderates are probably stronger now because they have elected officials who are arguing that it’s okay to be a Republican and take those positions. As a Democrat, I don’t think I should get into whether those positions are right or wrong, just that it’s easier to stand up politically when prominent members of your party take those stands.
But the bigger question for 2008 is whether or not John McCain is the right candidate to unite those voters. I think Adam touched on his real weakness when he talked about his crankiness and I wonder if anyone of any persuasion really trusts him with his finger on the nuclear trigger. I think McCain not only has to sell people on his views, but also on himself as a potential commander in chief which I think he will have trouble doing.
Ironically, Guiliani who is also mercurial to say the least is more trusted in my opinion because he has held an executive position and people think they can trust him under fire after 9/11. If the Republican choice really winds up being two moderates, then the deciders in the battle will likely be the party conservative activists and I suspect if that is the choice, they go with Rudy over McCain because they trust him more on economic issues and don’t really see a difference on social or moral issues. I also think Rudy get’s helped by the Bill Simon’s of the world that know him and like him. Of course that’s just my opinion.