The other day I posted how hard it was to believe it had been four years since Shirley Horton was elected in AD 78, and that things should quickly be heating up for that seat’s 2008 triple-donnybrook.
I guess the four days between swearing-in on Monday and first official candidate on Friday is quick enough. Auday Arabo, president and CEO of California Independent Grocers & Convenience Stores, is throwing his hat in the ring…as a Democrat, which may come as a surprise to some that have otherwise assumed — or never asked — his Party registration.
Before we get to Auday, let me touch on my reason for calling the ’08 contest a "triple-donnybrook." As background, this seat was drawn a relatively safe Dem seat, with Vince Hall being that Party’s standard-bearer in 2002. When the smoke cleared, Republican Shirley Horton had won (one of two supposedly safe Dem assembly seats in the state, the other taken by Bonnie Garcia), due to Horton’s service as mayor in the area’s largest city (Chula Vista), the able guidance of Coronado Communications, a great ground campaign, and a Democrat nominee effectively tied as a recent employee to a floundering and ridiculous-looking Gray Davis.
After two unsuccessful attempts to unseat Horton, the Dems want to take it once and for all, and the Reps want to prove the last several years haven’t been a fluke. Short of some act-of-God reapportionment in the meantime (possible, perhaps) both major Party primaries and the general in 2008 could all be TENSE.
With that, candidates that have been mentioned include Chula Vista City Councilman John McCann and County Supervisor Greg Cox (both Republicans), and Lemon Grove Mayor Mary Sessom and former Senator Steve Peace (both Democrats).
The first semi-official announcement, however, seems to be that of Auday Arabo, a former prosecutor in the San Diego County District Attorney’s office, current CEO of CAIGCS, nephew to retired State Senator Wadie Deddeh, and a popular figure in the Chaldean community (and outside it as well). Senator Deddeh, by the way, still popular in the area himself, will support Arabo.
It should be further noted that Wadie Deddeh was one of the last (and I mean LAST) Democrats in the legislature to be openly and unabashedly pro-life. Yes, I know things have changed since then…and I don’t believe any credible Democrat in this seat, not the least of which is Auday, believes they can garner Party support following in those exact footsteps. I wish a Democrat or two would have the guts to take Wadie’s lead, however.
An excerpt from Auday’s missive to some of his friends:
After 4 years representing family owned small businesses…I have decided to run for the 78th Assembly District as a Democrat. I want to give back to my community and the country that has given me so much. I want to make a positive impact on community and its residents. I am running as the newcomer, with new blood, with new ideas and a new vision, definitely not the status quo. I feel I can help bring people together in the Capitol and make sure things get done.
I would be honored and privileged to have your support, your vote, your time and most importantly retain your personal friendship. I will remain with the Independent Grocers throughout 2007, but will also be working on my campaign….
I caught up with Auday and asked him about his uncle’s reputation as a moderate (and conservative on some issues) Democrat. "I am a Democrat in the same mold and in many ways as my uncle — a Democrat that is very bi-partisan."
An uncle’s shoes are sometimes the ones to be filled.
Speaking of shoes, we should expect a few others on the track soon. So, who else is in the race? Come on, folks. And, fellow FR blogger Duane (Dichiara), you’ve built a great reputation in this district taking it away from the hands that formed it. Weigh in when you’re ready.
December 8th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Barry:
The original redistricting maps in 2001 made this district VERY safely
Democratic, and put it entirely within the City of San Diego.
Then….. just before the process ended, the Democrat-controlled
committee removed the Clairemont portion of the district (San
Diego city) , and replaced it with Chula Vista and parts of Spring
Valley.
This put Chula Vista mayor Shirley Horton into the district as a
potential Republican candidate, AND also made the district much
more Republican.
On Election Night 2002, after 2 lead changes, it was Chula Vista
and Spring Valley that won the day for Shirley Horton, 45,800 to
44,100 … the closest race in the state.
Why the Democrats controlling the remap process did this in 2001
has never been publicly revealed.
Suffice it to say, if the Demos wonder who lost them this seat, their
answer is as close as the nearest Mirror !
As Paul Harvey might say … N O W, you know the r e s t of the story.
December 8th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Thanks, Jim, as always for your keen historical knowledge. You’re one of the few folks I know that can remember all the detail without having to look it up…ok, you may have had to look up the vote totals, but I wouldn’t be surprised if you remembered it within a a few dozen votes!
December 9th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Enjoy it while it lasts. This seat is going Democratic again in 2008.
December 9th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Once again, my old friend Barry has his finger on the pulse! It’s an interesting anlysis but I’m not sure Arabo was “first” out of the blocks. Community College Board President Marty Block has been officially IN for the Democratic nomination in the 78th for a few weeks — and is quickly unifying support from the stakeholders and community leadership. I predict Arabo will galvanize Democrats’ support of Block’s campaign: Besides being a total unknown who has no track record, electoral experience, or name recognition, Arabo is an anti-choice conservative Dem in a district that stays solidly pro-choice through November, Arabo is a fish out of water. Look for Marty Block to bring the 78th back into the Dem column in November ’08.
December 9th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Going Democratic “again” ?
The 78th AD has only elected a Republican, Shirley Horton, since the
district was completely redrawn in 2001.
There is not a single precinct of overlap between the pre-2001 78th,
and the current district.
December 10th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Thanks, Vince, if anyone knows what’s happening on the Democratic side, you do. Ask Marty to add me to his distribution so I can keep abreast. thx.
December 11th, 2006 at 12:00 am
I have known Auday now for quite some time and I am most definitely impressed by his integrity, intelligence, youth, drive, and commitment to Democratic principles. He is pro-choice, has backing from the law enforcement community, and most recently has won the respect of La Raza Lawyers Association. He has also worked on several campaigns. The guy has politics running through his veins and he is very passionate about the issues he cares about.
I most definitely would like to see that seat Democratic again. That’s why I support Auday — I believe he is a very viable candidate, will raise the money that will be necessary, and most importantly has in a very short time gotten a cross-section of community support.
December 11th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Note: Maviglio on November 6 predicted a five point Sherard victory in AD78 in the California Majority Report.
December 11th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Let’s be fair, however, about Mr. Maviglio’s political predictions.
He also forecast that Steve Clute would beat Bonnie Garcia by
3 points, that John Doolittle would lose his Congressional seat
by 3 points, and that ……. Oh, Never Mind! :(