This race was going to be a no brainer. Margaret Mims, Democrat, Assistant Sheriff, against retired CHP and gang task force leader Cal Minor, a Republican. Republicans have a 25,000 voter registration advantage in the County. Minor is endorsed by the Fresno Bee, the Lincoln Club of Fresno County, Congressman Radanovich and Nunes, Senator Chuck Poochigian and Assemblyman Mike Villines, Fresno Chamber of Commerce, Deputy Sheriff’s Association and Fresno Police Officers Association, the Republican Central Committee, and countless others.
It appears as if Minor has lost the race – and Mims might have scored the biggest upset win in decades in Fresno County. How did she overcome all the assets of Cal Minor?
She mostly benefited from the GOP implosion.
Minor’s apparent loss, by 770 votes out of over 140,000 cast, was driven by several factors, as follows:
Republican Voters Disgust With the GOP Congress – this has been brewing years, but the last two years have really depressed Republicans. When Majority Leader John Boehner was here in Fresno this past June, I told him he would be the Minority Leader in November. He scoffed and was arrogant in response. I knew right then it was over for our side.
Arnold Drove The Wrong Turnout – Improbable as is may seem, Arnold received 67% of the vote in Fresno County, with favorite son Chuck Poochigian receiving 60% and Tom McClintock 57%. Cal Minor received only 50% of the vote. You tell me – who was out voting for Arnold? Liberals. There is no other way to explain the drop off to the other candidates. I estimate that Democrat turnout was 7-10% higher than Republican turnout – a situation not seen around here for years. And why not? They got minimum wage, a greenhouse gas bill, all the spending and borrowing they could ever have dreamed of………and hate the war on terror.
Unions Canvassing Central Fresno – the SEIU and FTA ran a pilot program in urban Fresno with Spanish speaking precinct walkers targeted at defeating Assemblyman Juan Arambula’s school board slate and pressing a union slate of school board candidates. This effort increased turnout in urban Fresno – over 60% of it to Mims.
Fresno’s Mayor endorsed Mims – In a race decided by less than half a percent, this mattered. We now move Autry into the RINO category. Another RINO, former Assemblyman Mike Briggs (who provided reliable votes for all the bad Davis budgets) actually ran Mims campaign. Several other GOP elected official sat the race out. We’ve made our notes on who they are and when they come hat in hand for re-election endorsements, they should be prepared to be asked why.
Poochigian’s Statewide Showing – The Lincoln Club ran radio ads for three weeks asking voters to turn out for favorite son Chuck Poochigian, and Cal Minor. We thought Poochgian was our only hope of driving local turnout, absent any other hotly contested races, or any interesting issues. When the Field Poll, one week out, showed Poochgian down 20% statewide to Jerry Brown, it killed enough turnout countywide to help Mims. The Lincoln Club received over 171,000 visits to its website in 3 weeks, but in the end, we can’t drive turnout.
The Female Vote – Something tells me that there was enough of a gender gap in Tuesday’s elections to help Mims over Minor. I don’t have any proof, but women registered voters outnumber male registered voters by around 30,000 in the County. We now might be one of the only counties in the nation with both a female DA and female Sheriff.
Finally, some believe that Minor’s lack of an absentee chase campaign cost him the election, but I don’t. Mims is receiving the same statistical number of late absentee votes as early absentee votes. I don’t think direct mail works anymore as a campaign strategy, and Minor staying out of the mailbox during early absentee voting didn’t hurt him at the polls or it would have shown up in the late numbers, and it hasn’t so far.
There are a lot of lessons to learn here in local politics. External issues can have a large impact on outcomes. No matter how many "72 hour programs" we put together for turnout, there will be no turnout without leadership on issues from our elected officials and/or candidates. And sometimes, our own leaders can drive the wrong turnout. That was the case this year in Fresno with the Governor and his set of left of center issues.
Finally, here is the lesson I learned. It ain’t over til its over and the votes are counted. So many people perceived Minor to be winning easily that it hurt his fundraising and kept some people home. No matter who you are, or what you are running for, never assume anything other than that you are losing. That attitude will keep all candidates working hard through election day.