News of Congressman Duncan Hunter’s likely announcement later this morning that he will form a presidential exploratory committee buzzed across the San Diego political landscape yesterday, turning an otherwise lazy Sunday into a day of much interest, with several political watchers sputtering and panting on the phone.
For those of us who live in Hunter’s district, a wide area of East San Diego County we sometimes call God’s Country, the news was even bigger.
It’s been twenty-six years since Duncan was first elected to Congress, knocking off Lionel Van Deerlin in a Reagan-led 1980 surprise. In all that time the conservative spirit of Ronald Reagan has been alive and well in Duncan Hunter. There are few people — and fewer politicians — that I would call great Americans. Duncan Hunter is among them.
I’ll let the rest of the print and electronic media, as well as the talk show hosts pontificate as to his chances, what’s really behind this, the impact on the presidential field, etc, etc (see today’s SDUT and the Associated Press). There is a local impact, however, something we have all joked about for many years, let’s call it the proverbial, "Well, if Duncan ever retires from Congress, who is gonna run?"
OK, I am the first to know that we should give Duncan his due, that the man should be allowed to formalize his plans before we talk about replacing him. But, let’s face it, no one will ever replace him. At some point, however, someone will succeed him, and we all knew that sooner or later — whether thru retirement, getting tapped for an administration position, or a run for higher office — something would happen. If Duncan runs for CD 52 again, wonderful, it’s literally his seat for as long as he wants, and he is the best representative I could ever hope for (not to mention the only).
In the meantime, however, this is the FlashReport. No other media entity in the state will be looking at the prospects for the 52nd Congressional seat today, except these pages. It’s what we do. This is the business we’ve chosen.
I spent some time yesterday tracking down or emailing those on what I’ll call the long list, folks who represent portions of the 52nd seat or whose names have at times been mentioned. I narrowed it to Republicans…short of a major redistricting along with getting a slew of Republicans to move west (which would scare the heck out of Susan Davis), this seat will be decided in the primary.
I asked two questions:
1) Do you have any comments on Duncan Hunter’s apparent announcement tomorrow that he will explore a bid for the Presidency?
2) Understanding that Duncan’s decision may be quite a ways into the future, would you consider running should the 52nd Congressional seat become open?
As more of these individuals become available, or realize they probably shouldn’t hide — since others will ask them the same questions — I will provide updates. These are in no particular order:
County Supervisor Dianne Jacob… Representing much of Duncan’s district, she is popular and has huge name ID, probably only second to Hunter himself. Likely more moderate than Duncan on some issues, but as one of the only women currently representing the area, she would have to be taken very seriously, especially in a crowded field of men. (I couldn’t reach her for a comment…yet.)
Assemblyman Jay La Suer… Terming out of the 77th AD, but the upside is he would have time to campaign. A conservative’s conservative, in the Hunter mold, would fit the district to a tee. One of the persons Duncan would likely consider endorsing. Jay called Hunter, "A quality person who operates on common sense and logic, he believes in the American way of life and puts America first. I believe he would do a fine job as president…he’s got my vote."
As for running for Congress: "I would give it some very serious consideration."
State Senator Dennis Hollingsworth... Another strong conservative, a 2008 race would put him mid-way thru his second and last term in the Senate. He lives in Riverside, but the gerrymandered SD 36 takes a large swath out of East SD as well. His conservatism beat Charlene Zettel in this area. Will he consider moving south? On Duncan: "Hunter would make an excellent President. He has the right conservative ideas and positions, and the crucial, heartfelt desire and experience to effectively see this country is protected."
A run for Congress: "Any speculation on that should rightfully wait for another day."
Former Assemblyman Steve Baldwin… Do I need to say this guy is a conservative? Succeeded by La Suer in 2000, but not forgotten by a gaggle of activists. Now the executive director of Council for National Policy in DC, he would have access to some big conservative donors. This could be his excuse to finally move home. "I welcome it," Baldwin said of Hunter’s possible bid. "We have lots of fake conservatives currently running and frankly, the conservative leadership of the country is looking for someone to rally behind."
On running in an open Hunter seat: "I would have to consult with family and friends, but yes, I would certainly consider it."
Assembly Nominee Joel Anderson… Another conservative, will be elected in the safe AD 77 next week, succeeding La Suer. Has built a small army of volunteers, which would naturally carry forward and be motivated by a bid for higher office. An obvious choice to succeed Hollingsworth for the Senate seat in in 2010. Would an open ’08 congressional seat come too early for him? (Unavailable for comment…but I know Joel and his focus is on his Assembly race, nothing else).
Mark Larson… The local conservative talk show host has long toyed with running for office…could this be the one? Thirty-year TV and radio personality, a popular presence, especially in East County. Has covered the Middle East on location, including Afghanistan…has great access to the real insiders that know the issues. On Duncan: "I’m very excited about Duncan’s possibilities, and posted my feelings about this on www.larsonblog.com."
Running himself: "Yes, I would certainly consider running for his seat if it became open in 2008 and beyond. I love my radio career and plan on continuing our success at KOGO, but if suddenly he was out of office I would have to explore possibilities. Back in the early 1990s when I was considering running for Assembly, Paul Weyrich called and said I was nuts…that I would shrink my "reach"…radio was better than state assembly…and he said ‘do your homework over the next few years until Duncan decides to leave office…get involved on issues, with Duncan’s supporters, emcee events, etc’. Good advice."
Scott Turner… The former San Diego Charger and current motivational speaker and assistant pastor took perhaps a too-early stab at the Brian Bilbray-won seat earlier this year, but did impress a host of people while even nailing Roger Hedgecock’s endorsement. Has been seen just about everywhere Duncan goes in recent months, with Hunter always proudly introducing him. Is there writing on this wall? "I believe that Mr. Hunter will be an excellent candidate for President and that he would be a great leader for our Country," said Scott. "As far as the 52nd goes, I have no comment at this time."
Mark Price… The one-time Assembly candidate (when Charlene Zettel beat him and Joel Anderson in the "open primary" year) and current Alpine School board member has long been said to have an interest and possibly the finances. A very compelling comment on Hunter: "With Duncan’s depth of knowledge and his years of commitment as well as his legislative and military experience he would be a formidable candidate and a very capable President. My one regret is that his father and Wendell (Cutting) will not be standing with him for the announcement. On second thought, they very well may be."
A bid for Congress?: "I would consider a run if Duncan were to ask me to consider it."
A slew of other people, of course, are always possibilities….
The mayors of the cities in the district, including La Mesa’s Art Madrid, El Cajon’s Mark Lewis, Santee’s Randy Voepel, and Poway’s Mickey Cafagna. That’s not even getting into all the other local electeds. Madrid said he was surprised by Duncan’s announcement, that Hunter "has done a good job as a congressman representing his district," and that "the mayor’s office I currently occupy is where I can have the greatest impact on La Mesa residents."
San Diego City Councilman Jim Madaffer is on the cusp of CD 52, I believe. He would have some name ID, but East Countians may not look too favorably on anyone from the "Big City," especially given SD’s recent history.
Other names that have come up include County Board of Education Member Bob Watkins, current SD County and likely next State GOP Chairman Ron Nehring, and former Assemblywoman and current Director of California’s Department of Consumer Affairs Charlene Zettel.
If some of these folks have anything of interest to add, I’ll post. It’s the business I’ve chosen, regardless of the great pay.
Am I missing anyone? Let me know.
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by Barry Jantz