By FR San Diego Correspondent Barry Jantz
Interestingly enough, the adjective "redux," meaning "brought back," comes from the Latin word "dux," meaning "leader" or "duke". 
Duke. Well, at least we can be comforted in knowing that the current political contest in California’s 50th Congressional District will not result in a Duke Cunningham redux.
Bilbray-Busby II is but a sad sequel to all its former glory. Also less confusing, considering the former ballot included both a special run-off to fill the remainder of Cunningham’s term as well as the respective party nominations for the next. By any reasonable watcher’s account, the June run-off was Francine Busby’s only chance, if there ever really was one.
Without as much fanfare as that which seemed to garner rapt attention in June, here are five reasons Brian Bilbray wins it like oiled silk a week from Tuesday:
- If Democrats had a false hope in the primary that Busby could pull it off, the incumbency factor has dashed it completely, leaving only lefty political neophytes and those who have never "gotten it" leading her charge. The only problem…such folks neither control any purse strings nor have access to those who do.
- No substantive mileage will be achieved from Busby-generated media reports of a Grand Jury investigation into Bilbray’s residency. Voters either view it as election year politics or — if true — as to be expected of career politicians. Such "high expectations" did not hurt Bilbray earlier in the year, with a number of voters willing to support experience regardless of any political expediency that may have been created to gain an advantage.
- Bilbray has effectively used incumbency to stand out on such issues as saving the Mt. Soledad Memorial Cross and rejecting perceived attempts to convert the Miramar Air Base to a civilian airport. Do I even need to mention illegal immigration? Brian hasn’t been quiet on that front either. In the eyes of an otherwise largely unaware electorate, these issues more than overcome any bad Bilbray votes, such as not living up to campaign commitments on congressional earmarks. Any gauge of lingering questions by conservatives about whether Brian would be a "new man in a new district" are in some cases too early to ascertain and in some cases lost against the backdrop of other issues.
- San Diegans, aside from an occasional sentiment for "tossing the bums," are a largely go-along-get-along group of voters, very inclined to say "We just elected the guy, didn’t we?…let’s give him a chance." The 22% of independent voters in C.D. 50 will be the group most inclined to do so.
- Do we need to be reminded that Busby pulled only two percentage points higher in June than she received in her own Party’s special election primary? Do we need to mention again her then-home stretch claim, "You don’t need papers to vote," amazingly repeated two days later while trying to explain away the first? As I wrote in June, Busby’s "presence has been more a factor of ‘right place at right time’ than it was ever about her ‘pedigree’ as a viable Democratic contender."
Without digging up a buried horse, Busby is no better a candidate now than she was in June. If the Dems wanted a shot at an upset, they needed a great candidate then, instead of a lackluster one. That, of course, has not changed.