by FR State Capitol Correspondent Dan Schnur
Some say the world will end in fire, some say in ice. So if you’re a California Democrat contemplating electoral apocalypse and you’ve already reconciled yourself to the idea that Arnold Schwarzenegger is going to be re-elected next month, you’re probably just beginning to confront a downticket dilemma that’s almost as frustrating:
McClintock or Strickland.
If you’re a California Democrat and you’re still mad about the special election, but you’ve come to term with the idea that another four years of Arnold won’t be that bad as long as he continues to compromise with the legislature on everything but taxes and illegal immigration, and you were never that wild about Phil Angelides anyway so it’s time to start thinking about Villaraigosa or Newsom or O’Connell (or Obama or Gore or Hillary), you’ve still got an unpleasant decision to face in the meantime:
**There is more – click the link**
October 19th, 2006 at 12:00 am
The only problem with this scenario is that there’s a Democrat at the top of the ticket, and her name is Senator Feinstein.
The real question is how much the hapless campaign of Mountjoy will drag down the rest of the GOP ticket.
BTW, Zogby out today has Arnold 7 points over Angelides, and still under 50 percent.
October 19th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Dan; Check your calendar, this is not 1994.
October 19th, 2006 at 12:00 am
A lot of attention is being focussed on the potential of Angelides to depress the Democratic and liberal vote. But I don’t think enough attention is being paid to the potential of this year’s mix of ballot measures to depress the Democratic and liberal vote.
I don’t see any super hot-button issues to galvanize Democrats and get them to the polls. Oh, sure, a lot of money is being spent fighting over bonds and tax measures, but very few people get all excited about running to the polling booth to vote for a tax hike or a giant bond. This year there’s no Educational Choice or Paycheck Protection initiative which would spell doom for unions and induce them to empty their political warchests in an all-out campaign to defeat the measure.
So as far as the marginal Democratic voter is concerned, nothing too terrible is going to happen if he doesn’t feel like voting this November. And the unions and liberal special interest groups cannot easily raise the fear level no matter how much money they spend.
Of course one can argue that the Republicans will also be less motivated to vote, especially with the hostile political climate which Republicans are facing elsewhere in the nation. But I suspect that more people will be strongly motivated to vote against higher taxes and indebtedness than to vote in favor. And in general a low voter turnout will tend to skew more Republican than Democratic.
Angelides’ latest tactic of going strongly negative against Arnold is likely to backfire badly. Angelides has nothing to lose by going there, since he was already dead meat, but Democrats have a lot to lose if marginal voters are disgusted and and use that as an excuse/rationalization to stay home.
October 19th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Oh come on Maviglio! Nice spin. It’s more likely that because Feinstein commands such a large lead, Democrats don’t feel the need to be motivated to vote or engage in GOTV efforts. They’re not worried. The uncompetitive nature of the Feinstein-Mountjoy matchup may further depress Democrat votes. You, an accomplished Democrat operative, can probably see that better than us, so stop trying to project false confidence.
October 19th, 2006 at 12:00 am
I understand Dan’s comments, but I am not sure about the number breakdown. Cruz is clearly in trouble since the special, but the office is Insurance Commissioner where voters tend to favor Democrats and that will help him. Further, both Cruz and Garamendi have a long history (prior to the special at least) of doing very well in the Central Valley which tends to be Republican turf and that will help both of them. As for McPherson, newspapers love him and treat him incredibly well (of course they all think a former newspaper editor is a great elected official) but do you really think his well deserved reputation as a straight shooter and hard worker is something regular voters are aware of? I am not saying you are wrong, just asking the question.
As for Jerry Brown, his noted eccentricities also include having a lot of conservative friends that could promote him to voters if he really got into trouble. As an example, one of his chief financial advisors for many years was Arthur Laffer. I am not saying Jerry couldn’t wind up in trouble, just saying he has some extra firepower to draw on if it happens and there are few people better at the give and take that goes on in the last weeks of a campaign than our former Governor. But having said all of that, I think Dan could very well be right on in his predictions and in fact I think Republicans could even pick up some seats in the legislature if Democratic turnout is really low. But that is the 64 dollar question. For a lot of Democrats who are very frustrated by what is going on in Washington, this is a chance to make a statement. In other states, you are seeing very high numbers of requests for absentee ballots from Democrats this year. They are angry and want to make a statement. Will that happen in California where things look so bad. Probably not if nothing changes, but it wouldn’t surprise me if turnout among Democrats reaches normal levels for an off year election just because emotion from what is going on at the federal level will push turnout up a couple of points. The biggest part of the answer to that question will depend on Democratic GOTV efforts and in the end, that may decide several races. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
October 19th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Nick:
Like I tell my students at Sac State, the best spin is the truth.
Arnold had no coattails in 2004 when he was at 65% (went 0-9 in legislative races). And he’ll have no coattails in 2006.
In case you hadn’t noticed or read any of the national stories you post here, Democrats are psyched to come out and vote. And when those East Coast returns show Dems taking back the House and the Senate, it’s your guys who are going to stay home and polish their diamonds instead of heading to the polls.
As for the initiatives, have you guys missed the Clinton and Gore ads for Prop 87? Or do you think we’re asleep about the anti-choice Prop 85? We’ll be there. Trust me.
October 20th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Legislative districts which were carefully gerrymandered to
produce a predetermined outcome.
The statewide offices are, by definition, different and that’s
where Arnold can deliver.
Ask Gray Davis about Arnold’s coattails…. Remember the
Million Vote Majority to approve the Recall in 2003?
October 20th, 2006 at 12:00 am
If the outcomes were predetermined, why did Arnold weigh in with robocalls, fundraisers, and mail in all of those races? Why did the Republican Party spend millions? Because they thought the Governor’s popularity would make a difference.
tell me about the coattails of the recall, because there were none.
October 20th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Newbies in special situations like recalls don’t have many coattails, true.
But Arnie has way more than muddled thru – he’s not regarded as a “temp” or fill-in, hasn’t put too many feet in his mouth and is highly personable and clearly shows overall smarts. It’s a completely different picture than a couple of years ago.
Whatever your feeling about Angelides’ politics, many ordinary folk – even those predisposed toward democrat/left/liberal politics – get the feeling he’s ‘book-smart-only’ and probably couldn’t win a poker game sober.
His campaign ad awhile back saying he was gonna add more high school counselors caused everyone in the babershop I was visiting to burst out in laughter, since we all – in a single instant – realized how lame, in general, high school counselors are. And we’re all heartened now that we know Captain Queeganopolis is worried about his shredder’s grating size, so we’ll have to worry if he wastes state budget on investigating paper color thickness issues.
Arnie’s mistake last year was in doing all four ballot measures at once, instead of 77 last year, then 75 following up. (Don’t wanna rile the trolls with their hyperinlfated state pensions.) However, that misfortune may turn out to be beneficial: the left spent a TON of their money last year fighting these 4 ballot issues and is licking its financial wounds this year.
In fac this reminds me, somewhat, of when California gun owners took that crook & gun-grabber Dave Roberti down: we got him to spend all his money in the primary so he’d lose the general. I’ll bet you Dave Roberti never wants to hear the term ‘assault weapon’ again; it was his Roberti-Roos law that caused his political demise.
Nonpolitical folk in CA unfortunately see DiFi as a separate entity, somewhat apolitical. Maybe they’re giving her a ‘grandma’s pass’, I dunno. But she doesn’t have ‘carrying power’ whatsoever. Even if things were tremendously good nationwide for Republicans, DiFi would still be there – mostly for name recognition.
Today’s crashing & burning of the Cruzamonte, as well as an increasingly clear legal indication that Jerry Brown won’t be able to take office, leads me to think there may be some ‘upwards coattails’ too.