by FR State Capitol Correspondent Dan Schnur
[WELCOME BRITONS!]
Some say the world will end in fire, some say in ice. So if you’re a California Democrat contemplating electoral apocalypse and you’ve already reconciled yourself to the idea that Arnold Schwarzenegger is going to be re-elected next month, you’re probably just beginning to confront a downticket dilemma that’s almost as frustrating:
McClintock or Strickland.
If you’re a California Democrat and you’re still mad about the special election, but you’ve come to term with the idea that another four years of Arnold won’t be that bad as long as he continues to compromise with the legislature on everything but taxes and illegal immigration, and you were never that wild about Phil Angelides anyway so it’s time to start thinking about Villaraigosa or Newsom or O’Connell (or Obama or Gore or Hillary), you’ve still got an unpleasant decision to face in the meantime:
Strickland or McClintock.
Of course you’ll vote against both Tom McClintock for Lieutenant Governor and Tony Strickland for Controller (you’re not really voting for Garamendi and you don’t know anything about John Chiang). But if you’re a Democrat donor or strategist or union leader who has to decide where to put your time and money and resources over the last two weeks of the campaign, your options for avoiding a Republican wipeout are shrinking very quickly.
Assuming Arnold maintains his leads in the polls and pulls off a double-digit win, he’ll almost certain bring Steve Poizner and Bruce McPherson into office with him. Chuck Poochigian’s a good man, but that’s a longer shot against Jerry Brown, and Claude Parrish is an even longer shot than that. But somewhere in the middle are the McClintock and Strickland campaigns, both of whom could end up riding Schwarzenegger coattails to victory as well.
The Democrats’ first instinct would naturally try to beat them both. McClintock is the unquestioned leader of the conservative movement in California and Strickland is his protégé. Either one in statewide office is enough to make most Democratic party leaders cringe. But with time running out and the increased likelihood of a depressed turnout among the state’s disillusioned liberals, dividing your resources and trying to win both campaigns represents a significant risk.
Last week, California’s labor unions opened up their checkbook against McClintock, presumably under the belief that his ascension to the Lt. Governor’s office would position him as the logical successor to Schwarzenegger in 2010. But other Democrats worry that the office of Controller has responsibilities that are much more substantive. Strickland sitting on the PERS board, for example, is enough to give the public employee unions nightmares. In addition, there’s not a lot of love for Garamendi among party regulars, while electing Chiang would allow Democrats to continue praising their own diversity for another four years.
So who’s it going to be? Lt. Governor McClintock or Controller Strickland? Fire or ice?
Those who would argue the premise of the preceding paragraphs need only to look back at recent California political history to see the powerful (although not unlimited) impact of a landslide in the governor’s race in the campaigns for downticket offices. When Pete Wilson defeated Kathleen Brown in 1994 by a fifteen point margin, Republicans were also elected to the offices of Attorney General, Secretary of State, Treasurer, and Insurance Commissioner. Four years later, when Gray Davis beat Dan Lungren by twenty points to win the governor’s office, five of the seven constitutional officeholders elected were fellow Democrats.
For voters who don’t pay a great deal of attention to politics, the path of least resistance on Election Day is often to vote their preference at the top of the ticket and keeping checking off boxes in the same column. There are limits to this carry-over effect, most notably incumbency, extremely high name recognition or fundraising capability, or abject incompetence. But it’s a safe bet to assume that the bigger the differential at the top of the ticket, the greater the advantage for fellow party members running for other offices. Since the state’s congressional and legislative districts have been gerrymandered out of competitive existence, that leaves the constitutional offices, whose most practical relevance is to serve as an incubator for future candidates for governor and U.S. Senate.
There are too many variables at this point to predict a likely margin of victory for Schwarzenegger, so instead allow me to submit the Schwarzenegger Coattail Index (SCI):
If Arnold wins by 2-3 points, Poizner will be elected Insurance Commissioner. (Lots of money and running against Cruz Bustamante is a very good place to be.)
If Arnold wins by 5-6 points, McPherson will be elected Secretary of State. (Incumbent known as a straight shooter and good government reformer isn’t bad either.)
If Arnold wins by 10-11 points, Strickland will be elected Controller. (This assumes that the Democrats continue to prioritize the Garamendi-McClintock race over this one.)
If Arnold wins by 14-15 points, McClintock will be elected Lt. Governor. (This estimate was revised in the wake of the union money directed into this race last week.)
If Arnold wins by 18-20 points, Poochigian will be elected Attorney General. (Chuck is terrific, but Brown’s name ID makes this a taller mountain to climb.)
And if Arnold wins by 40-45 points, Claude Parrish is elected State Treasurer. (OK, maybe not….)
So for a conservative wondering if it’s worth getting off the couch for Arnold on November 6, let the Schwarzenegger Coattail Index serve as somewhat of a motivator. McClintock or Strickland? Maybe both, but at least one or the other. It depends on turnout – and where the Democrats decide to fire their last bullet.