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Jennifer Nelson

Will Buck be the surprise win of the year?

The registration numbers and past history tell us that the election for the 18th Assembly District was over when Mary Hayashi won the Democratic primary in June.  But this year, the GOP candidate, Jill Buck, is making the general election matter by running a smart campaign that has attracted Republican and Democrat supporters.  Even elected Democrats are coming out to publicly support Buck’s campaign for the Assembly.  Check out this quote by Dublin Mayor Jane Lockhart (which will be going out on a mailer to district voters): 

“As a life-long Democrat I look to my party to provide the best candidate. Sometimes that does not happen, and I must step outside my party affiliations and select the best person for the job. Jill Buck is just such a candidate. I know she will work hard to form a bipartisan team in
Sa cramento and will represent ALL of the district’s interests."

Buck also recently got the endorsement of two local papers–the Tri-Valley Herald and the Hayward Daily Review–with the Tri-Valley Herald calling her a "proven and polished leader." 

Part of the reason that Bay Area Republicans and Democrats feel comfortable with Buck is that she has solid education and environmental credentials and is well known in the district for her dedication to the schools and the environment.  But she’s also fiscally conservative and right thinking on issues relating to the state budget and the economy. 

Hayashi, on the other hand, is not well known in the district before she began to spend money on her campaign and is considered by many to be a carpetbagger.  She’s getting lots of money from the usual Dem sources–a myriad of labor union PACs and other Democrat legislators–as well as outside-the-state donations from people like Tipper Gore, Estee Lauder Co. President William Lauder and Emily’s List.  Big business and their associations gave tons of money to Hayashi’s campaign as well. (I’m sure it’s because they believe that Hayashi will go to Sacramento and stand up for less regulation and lower taxes.  Or maybe companies such as Target, Pfizer and Bank of America and associations such the California Building Industry Association think it is in the best interest of their shareholders and customers to give money to candidates that regularly vote down business-friendly legislation and routinely call for higher taxes and more regulation.) 

One side note, Buck has a statement of support from Gov. Schwarzenegger ("She shares my commitment to protecting California’s environment while keeping our economy thriving.") while Hayashi doesn’t have any endorsement or support from Democrat gubernatorial candidate Phil Angelides…and doesn’t plan to ask for one.  It’s another telling sign that the Democrats know how that Angelides is not connecting with California voters–even here in the liberal Bay Area.

Often in the Bay Area, the Republican Party isn’t able to recruit a candidate to run against a Democrat candidate everyone considers a shoe-in.  But this year, the GOP should be feeling proud of the strong candidate that is running in the 18th Assembly District.  Jill Buck would be a great addition to the State Assembly and to the Republican caucus.  Be sure to keep an eye on the 18th Assembly race on election night–it could be the surprise upset of the evening!