With the Gubernatorial debate now a part of history (in case you missed it, my take is here). Phil Angelides, down by double-digits in every public opinion poll that has been published, desperately 
needed to have something, anything happen in this one and only debate that would change the horrible position in which Angelides finds himself.
For the last few months, Phil Angelides has been flailing as a candidate, failing to gain any momentum or traction. Angelides has been unable to convince many core Democrat voters that he is capable of running the complex government apparatus of this large state. At the same time, Governor Schwarzenegger has been on top of his game, coming across as capable and effective.
The Governor has been appealing to his core Republican base with his emphasis on his pledge to oppose any new taxes or fees, and he has been appealing to many Democrats and centrist voters by making a big deal out of his support for a few key, liberal policies.
The combination of Angelides’ lackluster effectiveness to secure even his base vote, with Arnold Schwarzenegger’s aggressive and methodical campaigning have led us to a new stage of the campaign — we’ll call it "The Titanic Effect."
THE TITANIC EFFECT – DEMOCRATS JUMPING SHIP
The general election is just four weeks from tomorrow — 29 days away. There is no more time for Phil Angelides to suddenly become the ‘Comeback Kid’ — he will be able to spend his Christmas with his family trying to explain away his loss as circumstances beyond his control ("Schwarzenegger was bigger than life…"). What will happen now is that Democrat leaders are going to be trying to figure out how to keep a major loss in the Governor’s race from causing many or possibly all of their down-ticket candidates from losing to their Republican opponents. This is a very real possibility as an anemic Angelides will depress the turnout of Democrat voters, and will also take the wind out of a lot of the traditional get-out-the-vote efforts by the left. The top spot really is the game, but now Democrat leaders will have to try and spin to their troops that rallying for the down-ticket is important.
Already we are seeing the severing from Phil Angelides taking place. No one is more eloquent about it than senior Democrat Strategist Garry South, who says in the Los Angeles Times today, "When you have a situation like we had in 1994, when the top of the ticket collapses, it clearly has a downdraft effect."
The Times article goes on to cite South, "He said it was time for ‘triage’ and a shift of party resources from Angelides to the races of lieutenant governor, secretary of state and controller."
But it isn’t just South (whose public comments will be dismissed by Angelides as ‘sour grapes’ because he was a senior advisor to Angelides’ primary opponent, Steve Westly. Democrats from the top of the down-ticket to the number one targeted Democrat candidate for State Senate are giving Angelides tax-hike plans the ‘heave ho’ in an attempt to avoid going down with the ship.
In a television interview yesterday on NBC, Democrat Liuetenant Governor candidate John Garamendi publicly disagreed with Angelides’ tax hike plan, saying that, "He didn’t think it was necessary."
In another example, Orange County Supervisor and former Assemblyman Lou Correa, the Democrat nominee in the hotly contested 34th State Senate District, has put out campaign mail calling himself "…a different kind of Democrat" with the first bullet point being: "Lou Correa opposes the tax package being proposed by fellow Democrat Phil Angelides."
These examples will become more and more prevalent as Democrat candidates who thought that they would be holding commanding leads in what is ‘supposed’ to be a blue state are seeing poll numbers that show them in dead-heat races, or even worse — losing.
Of course, it won’t take long before this ‘Titanic Effect’ will start to dry up Phil Angelides’ fundraising. Many donors will simply not give, and it will mean less resources for Angelides and for the California Democrat Party’s GOTV efforts. Other special interest union dollars will now be looking for a new cause — with Angelides being left with a significant resource problem going forward…
NO ONE TAKES ANGELIDES SERIOUSLY
So what happens now is not a fun ride for Phil Angelides and the folks around him. We’ve seen it 
before when Kathleen Brown’s (pictured to the left) campaign for Governor in 1994 imploded, and Governor Pete Wilson was re-elected along with a host of GOP statewide candidates. Another example was when the GOP’s candidate for Governor in 1998, Dan Lungren, performed so poorly that Gray Davis was propelled into office with a host of Democrats (only the two GOP incumbents Secretary of State Bill Jones and Insurance Commissioner Chuck Quackenbush held onto their posts). This year was particularly painful as I was the Campaign Manager for our GOP candidate for Superintendent of Public Instruction and our candidate ended up with 46.6% against the union-backed, heavily financed incumbent.
I have spoken with many political reporters who have pretty much written off Angelides. They no longer take him seriously, and they are actually starting to get bored with covering such a "lopsided race" (that is a quote from a reporter with a major paper). This will leave Angelides with only his paid advertising to try and make a difference. As of last night, Angelides is still running the same ‘tired’ Bush spots, where Angelides tries to make a case that because many are unhappy with the President, they should therefore reject Schwarzenegger. Those spots aren’t working, but with less than a month to go, what else can Angelides do? Will he even be able to stay on the air in a meaningful way into the final days if he cannot convince those with the resources to spend it on his candidacy?
The fact that major Democrat leaders in the State are going to be publicly appearing with Governor Schwarzenegger this close to the election to campaign for the bond package is just one more demonstration of Angelides’ complete lack of gravitas and ability to command party discipline.
MOTIVATION FOR REPUBLICANS
Of course, the implosion of Phil Angelides and the intercenine battles within Democrat circles (what we have and will read about will be only a fraction of the actual infighting and arguing taking place in closed-door meetings) only serves to motivate and excite Republicans — eager to see a victory for the Governor translate into the election of Tom McClintock and the rest of the GOP down-ticket.
This year the bench of GOP candidates for office is strong, with a lot of very capable leaders carrying the GOP banner in their races. Garry South is right to start to suggest a diversion of resources as the worst-case scenario for Democrats is a very real possibility – Arnold 
Schwarzenegger being sworn into a full term of office come January, and with him a host of Republican officeholders.
One thing is certain as we go into the final countdown towards election day — California Democrats are in trouble, and the one person that will be least able to help them out of their bind is "Captain Phil Angelides" who is on the bridge of his own Titanic, steering it straight into a very large iceberg.
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