In San Diego County, the process for nonpartisan endorsements by the Republican Party started a couple of weeks ago with the mass endorsement of dozens if not hundreds of Republican incumbents by the Committee. Part of the process, however, allows individual GOP incumbents to be “pulled” from the mass endorsement list by members of the Committee. Usually, an incumbent is only pulled for a pretty straightforward reason. Pulled candidates need to come before the assembled Central Committee during their regular endorsement meeting, ask for the endorsement, and answer any questions or address any problems the committee my have. Their Republican opponents are allowed the same opportunity. Then the committee votes.
This year two North San Diego County Mayors were pulled.
Before getting into particulars, some background is needed. Polling has demonstrated time and time again that the Republican endorsement is the single most important endorsement in both the County of San Diego as a whole, and in the vast suburban neighborhoods and cities outside of the urban core. Over the past few years the local Republican Party has increased it’s political program to include door-to-door delivery of localized, official GOP voter guides, multiple mailers, and paid phone calls (side note: probably the most revolutionary nonpartisan ‘ticket’ program in the state right now is run by the San Bernardino Republican Party – Chairman Bill Postmus. Postmus has made solidifying the downticket an absolute priority, but more on that later). Local partisan officials tend to endorse the candidate endorsed by the Republican Party, as do other center-right business or political organizations.
So, in short the Republican endorsement is something a wise, contested Republican ‘nonpartisan’ officeholder would like to lose.
The City of Vista’s Mayor, Morris Vance, was pulled. I can’t write that this was a real surprise to anyone who runs in political circles (except Vance probably). See, Vance is a vocal supporter of increasing the sales tax in Vista in order to build a new City Hall – not usually a great way to build up Vista’s struggling local ‘mom and pop’ businesses. I believe he is also on the record against the roll-back of the Car Tax. I’ve been active in North County Republican politics for ten years, and I’ve never seen Vance participate in any meaningful way in any Republican program, and he has been on the losing side of a number of hotly contested partisan races. This being said, Vance could do the politically wise thing, and the right thing, and drive down to the Republican Party during the endorsement meeting, make his case, and pledge to get more involved. I think he would be welcomed with open arms. But I’ve met Vance a few times, and the general impression I get is he will not work to build an alliance with the GOP and will instead burn a bridge and increase his chances of a serious election. Having seen some polling, if I were Vance I’d make the effort.
The City of San Marcos’ Mayor, Corky Smith, was pulled. This was more of a surprise, and the whole story has more twists and turns. To know Smith is to like Smith. He’s been on the San Marcos City Council since the day before the Pilgrims landed, and has done a good job. Smith is being challenged by Councilman Desmond, who was elected in 2004 as a Decline to State, but who has re-registered as a Republican. Here’s what I think is going on on the surface: there is a general belief that the current City Manager ‘runs’ the city. He is leaving. Smith is older, and there are those that think he’ll be less than up to the energetic leadership required for the council to ‘run’ the city again. But it gets deeper and more interesting than that…
There are two factions in San Marcos politics. Until 2004 the alliance of Thibadeau-Preston-Smith (all Republicans) was the majority vs. Harris-Martin (Harris is a Democrat, Martin a former Independent who became a Republican before the 1996 election). In 1996 Thibadeau (usually pretty quick from a political perspective) and Martin were up for election. Problem was, the majority had made a serious strategic error in the March Primary. They’d backed a pro ‘big box’ initiative that not only lost 60-40 but which also mobilized a large number of citizens who wanted to toss out any politician who was pro-big box. Martin won re-election, but Thibadeau lost to dark horse Desmond, who most insiders barely knew of. Some folks thought (and think) Desmond was literally an outsider, some folks thought (think) he was a Harris ally.
The reaction of the former majority to the re-alignment was not constructive. Since the loss, some former majority faction members have managed to alienate former allies and folks on the fence. They haven’t built the the strong organization and alliances they are going to need to keep the seats they have or expand. Example: members of the Smith-Preston faction complained in 1996 that Martin, who had recently become a Republican, had been endorsed by the Republican Party. But in the intervening two years, the Smith-Preston faction didn’t appear to learn their lesson and start working early to make sure their candidates were endorsed and their opposition cut off.
This being said, there is time for these folks to re-asses their strategy and re-focus. In particular I know Councilman Preston rather well and think he could be a real leader in Republican politics in the years to come. But he is up for election this time as well, and the anti-big box crowd and the Harris alliance are stronger than they were in the past. In order to work his way up, he needs to both survive this election and demonstrate that he can build a formidable, lasting finance and political base. And you build those bases through addition, not subtraction.
Now Desmond is seeking the endorsement of the Republican Party for Mayor, and worked the membership of the committee diligently to make sure Smith, the GOP incumbent, was pulled. This means in the weeks to come Desmond and Smith will go head to head in front of the closed door committee for the endorsement. Desmond is a pretty smart guy from what I can tell from my interaction with him… he won a contested election against an incumbent out of nowhere, tends to fall in the majority on the council, and was able to outmaneuver his oppositio