When it was all said and done, the only thing that may have really mattered was the only thing that had at the start. No amount of pontification, money, mudslinging, Duke Cunningham fallout, or national attention was going to change the fact that California’s 50th Congressional District is home to significantly more registered Republicans than Democrats. To be exact, 44 to 30 percent, with a slew of independents.
The 50th is a Republican district, pure and simple. The political term is a safe seat. The district was 
drawn that way, whether one detests the reapportionment process or not. The common wisdom is that Democrats don’t win seats like this, as in “it will never happen.” No more of a chance than a Republican ever taking a seat like Bob Filner’s nearby 51st district, a long-term haven for any Democrat winning the Party primary.
That is the cold, perhaps ugly reality of politically-motivated gerrymandering. As we know, the Constitution mandates the occasional redrawing of political lines to ensure equivalent populations and equal representation – for our protection. The politicians take that process and bastardize it for their own protection.
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June 8th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Barry:
You have stepped back from all the details and given us some
perspective on the long-term trends. Well done.
There are at least 15,000 more absentees and provisional
ballots to count in this race. I expect Bilbray to reach 50%
of the overall field when that happens.
June 8th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Erik Caldwell deserves a round of applause for coordinating a successful ground game out of Bilbray headquarters. They turned out Republican voters and made sure he won.
June 9th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Nice job Barry. Despite the GOP registration advantage, this race could have gone to Busby — really. As you point out so well, the situation was a brewing perfrect storm for Democrats to take a GOP safe seat. But here is where campaign experience — so often under-valued — played a pitvotal role. First, after an initial mis-step on the part of the NRCC with their Busby-coddles-pedofile ad — they proved their mettle by junking that and getting stronger from there. Eventually they capitalized on the late Busby gaffe with a perfect radio spot. Second, you had a fairly inexperienced Busby. She got fuzzy with her message and then made the late-inning gaffe. But most importantly, as the seasoned veteran, Bilbray kept his focus and composure down the strecth. He hammered his core message all the way home. For budding pols out there, the Bilbray’s campaign was a great example of “find a message; deliver the message; repeat the message; win.”
One other technical thing, if you go back to almost any SurveyUSA poll you’ll find “virtually zero undecideds” — even 3 months out. This is not evidence of minds not being changed. It is an artifact of their push-button methodology.