[Today’s Daily Commentary has been penned by Barry Jantz, one of the FlashReport’s San Diego County Correspondents, and is his take on last Tuesday’s Special Election in the 50th Congressional District.]
By Barry Jantz
When it was all said and done, the only thing that may have really mattered was the only thing that had at the start. No amount of pontification, money, mudslinging, Duke Cunningham fallout, or national attention was going to change the fact that California’s 50th Congressional District is home to significantly more registered Republicans than Democrats. To be exact, 44 to 30 percent, with a slew of independents.
The 50th is a Republican district, pure and simple. The political term is a safe seat. The district was 
drawn that way, whether one detests the reapportionment process or not. The common wisdom is that Democrats don’t win seats like this, as in “it will never happen.” No more of a chance than a Republican ever taking a seat like Bob Filner’s nearby 51st district, a long-term haven for any Democrat winning the Party primary.
That is the cold, perhaps ugly reality of politically-motivated gerrymandering. As we know, the Constitution mandates the occasional redrawing of political lines to ensure equivalent populations and equal representation – for our protection. The politicians take that process and bastardize it for their own protection.
So, we have districts like the CA-50th Congressional, a historically safe GOP seat to Congressman Randy “Duke” Cunningham – and a political romper room against a local school board member and Democrat like Francine Busby.
That is, anyway, the common wisdom. And, then we have something else – extenuating circumstances – the first and most obvious being the fall from grace of Cunningham. Add to that a supposed disenchanted GOP base of voters, shell-shocked by the embarrassment of their once-trusted representative, fed up with a national GOP weak-kneed on illegal immigration, and confused with a convoluted quagmire of special, on-top-of-each-other elections resulting from Duke’s departure.
Toss into this mix a GOP brouhaha in which perhaps the most moderate of a crowded field – former Congressman Brian Bilbray – ends up winning the nomination. Fully completing the circle to the specter of Cunningham (and, naturally, Jack Abramoff), Bilbray is a dreaded lobbyist, even more fodder for the Democrats. On the opposite end of the spectrum, many conservatives (who failed miserably to narrow their list of GOP primary candidates when they had the chance) claim Bilbray too liberal for the district and now cry for their peers to abandon ship.
If there is such a thing as a perfect storm in politics, this is it. Excuse the reference, but some were calling this scenario a “Democrat’s political wet-dream.” A real chance for Francine Busby to win a Republican seat…a bellwether election in advance of November’s regular contests that will determine the make-up of the Congress of the United States and – ultimately – the fate of the nation.
Save the drama.
In anti-climactic fashion after unprecedented amounts of spending by both parties, on Tuesday the Republican nominee actually won a safe Republican seat, as Bilbray beat Busby by a roughly four percent margin, 49 to 45 percent. On these very pages before the polls closed, FlashReport bloggers virtually called it on the nose.
After millions of dollars were spent on her behalf – and against Bilbray – Busby pulled not even two percentage points more than she earned in the primary. While she maxed out at about 45 percent, Bilbray jumped from his crowded-primary 15 to nearly 50 percent, casting aside the charge that conservative Republicans would abandon him in droves. Many that voted against him for the GOP nod, now opted for him in the runoff, concerned more with the hallucination of Busby than the ghost of Cunningham past.
Additionally, few – or at least not enough – responded to Busby’s unique attempt to suppress Bilbray’s vote by getting conservatives that would never support her to instead vote for independent William Griffith.
So, was the contest closer than it might have been had voters a choice of a Republican other than Bilbray…say, given an unquestioned conservative? Perhaps. Maybe even likely. With his professional mantle tied around his neck and barrage of advertising as a reminder, by election day some might have thought his first name was “Lobbyist” instead of Brian.
But, for the sake of argument, let’s say Bilbray was the weakest choice in this particular election scenario. He still won the seat, effectively ending the argument.
Polling in advance of Tuesday showed a statistical dead heat, with Survey USA at 47 to 45 percent Bilbray. As noted here, however, the detailed cross-tabs indicated him significantly ahead, 52 to 38 percent among voters 65 and older, those inclined to vote whatever the circumstances. Thus, the expected low turnout was an advantage for Bilbray.
The advertising by the respective national Democratic and Republican Congressional Committees was just plain bad, inane even, with sinister music not unlike that heard in Disney’s Haunted Mansion, combined with the hyper-bass-like voice-over of those testosterone-laced Superbowl of Motocross radio ads. With a few days to go, the Survey USA poll showed virtually zero undecideds, meaning the constant TV spots were doing nothing at that point to change minds. Yet, they may have had another impact, sickening voters even more to the perception of poor choices and just who was telling the truth.
In the NRCC’s case, then, whether by luck or design (likely the former), the ads served even further to suppress voter turnout. Advantage again Bilbray.
I would be remiss without mentioning the bizarre home-stretch verbal gaffe by Busby, the now infamous “You don’t need papers to vote,” which she astoundingly repeated two days later while trying to explain away the first. In an election that might clearly turn on the illegal immigration issue, the fact that she made such a statement – even if not her intended meaning – was way stranger than fiction. After the Bilbray camp had a bit of initial difficulty even getting the national media to touch this very news-worthy item, a drumbeat of missives and mentions from GOP leaders, on talk radio such as the Roger Hedgecock show, and via blogs including the FlashReport, the Busby miscue was indeed picked up. Even if most watchers bought the remark as legit Busby foot-in-mouth, there was Bilbray on CNN pointing it out as most certainly an attempt to get “those without papers” to volunteer for her. Nothing illegal about that, according to the FEC, but certainly not appropriate in the minds of 50th CD voters. Advantage big time Bilbray.
Even with that said, it should be noted that given the district’s registration numbers, for Busby to reach 45 percent it is clear that the mass of the 22 percent in independent voters broke in her favor, most seemingly more concerned with the lobbyist factor, perhaps, than any perceived Busby weakness on immigration. But, with a GOP base of 44 percent very concerned with the immigration factor, Bilbray needed to garner a much smaller portion of the independents, thus being able to efficiently focus resources on GOP retention and turnout, which he did very well. Distinct advantage Bilbray.
This election may not have quite been over before it started, but the outcome was of little surprise to those close to the local electorate, regardless of the hype.
Noted on election night was Busby’s seeming inability to grasp when it was all over, followed by her claim that the November rematch for the next term would be different. More evidence that her presence has been more a factor of "right place at right time" than it was ever about her “pedigree” as a viable Democratic contender. Game, Set, Match.
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