Updated: 7:00 p.m.
Tuesday’s election in San Bernardino County was characterized by a staggeringly low voter turnout, despite the dogged efforts of many campaigns to stir voters’ interest. Countywide, voter turnout was abysmal at 21.97%. Democratic turnout narrowly exceeded that of Republicans because of several competitive legislative and statewide primaries.
The highest profile candidate in the county, Board of Supervisors Chairman Bill Postmus, is running for the countywide office of Assessor. While he made a strong showing with 46.2 percent of the vote, he wasn’t able to avoid a runoff against 12-year incumbent Donald Williamson, who received 33.68 percent of the vote. The main factor forcing a runoff was the presence of two additional candidates on the ballot. Two appraisers from the Assessor’s office filed papers to run after the incumbent had announced his retirement. But when Williamson filed for re-election at the last minute, it was too late for his two subordinates to get out of the race. The result: Williamson’s underlings pulled almost 20 percent of the vote, making a runoff all but inevitable – despite Postmus’ stellar effort.
Although Postmus (my boss) now faces a runoff against a weakened incumbent he’s already outpaced by 12.5% in the primary, the fact remains that Tuesday night was a highly successful evening for Postmus. There are two reasons for this. First, he’s almost certain to win the November runoff in a head-to-head match-up against Williamson (no incumbent in San Bernardino County has ever survived a runoff after placing second in a primary). And second, Postmus was able to dispatch several adversaries while at the same time boosting several key candidates to victory.
“The most satisfying result tonight is San Bernardino County picking up two seats in the State Assembly,” Postmus said Tuesday evening. The Supervisor was referring to the primary winners in two safe Republican districts currently held by termed-out legislators from neighboring counties: Dennis Mountjoy of L.A. County in the 59th, and Russ Bogh of Riverside County in the 65th. Postmus’ chosen San Bernardino County candidates in both contests were victorious Tuesday – Anthony Adams, Postmus’ former District Director, in the 59th (constultant: Johnson Clark Associates); and (I hate to say “I told you so”…) Yucca Valley Mayor Paul Cook, a retired Marine colonel (constultant: Tab Berg) who bested three strong Riverside County rivals in the 65th District. And believe me; Postmus put his money where his mouth is in these two races.
Back to the subject of Postmus’ own election, it’s important to again emphasize the significance of Postmus’ accomplishment in this race, and how strongly he is positioned for November:
1. Roughly two-thirds of the votes cast for Assessor were for someone other than the incumbent.
2. As a general rule, in runoff elections more of the remaining votes against the incumbent tend to go to the remaining challenger.
3. Even Williamson’s razor-thin re-election margin four years ago illustrated his weakness. In the 2002 primary, Williamson received nearly 46% of the vote while his closest challenger, Linda Foster, received 34.5%. In the runoff, Williamson increased his votes by less than 5% while Foster increased her share of the vote by 15%.
4. Also in the 2002 primary, challenger Michael Ramos received 42.7% of the vote to incumbent District Attorney Dennis Stout’s 35.3%. Understanding the aforementioned rule of thumb, Stout wisely suspended his campaign recognizing the virtual inevitability of Ramos’ success in the November runoff.
Additionally, Postmus, who is also Chairman of the County Republican Party, was able to fend off another Central Committee uprising led by Barry Hartz of Apple Valley, who placed second in the 59th A.D. primary. Postmus’ slate of candidates took seven of eight seats in his First Supervisorial District, with Hartz himself barely taking the eighth seat while his seven slate mates faltered. Similar or greater Postmus-backed majorities prevailed in each of the county’s four other districts.
One of the criticisms sometimes leveled by rival factions to the current majority on the county GOP is the notion that the party shouldn’t be endorsing in nonpartisan elections and primaries. Fittingly, during this election the county party under Chairman Postmus for the first time strongly backed a Superior Court Judge candidate. The county headquarters helped Deputy D.A. Steve Malone’s campaign complete thousands of volunteer phone calls and multiple micro-targeted mailers. The GOP endorsement also allowed Malone to be included on the county party’s slates and other official communications. The result was a strong showing for Malone (43.8%) over fellow deputy D.A. Larry Roberts (30.64%) and perennial candidate and liberal activist lawyer Marjorie Musser Mikels (25.24%) in the countywide race. Malone will now advance along with Roberts to a November runoff.
“Our success in nonpartisan elections speaks for itself,” Postmus said, “and our overwhelming Central Committee victories show that Republican voters approve of what were doing. So we’re going to keep doing it.”
Adding further to Postmus’ list of successes Tuesday was the significant margin of victory for Board of Equalization nominee Michelle Steel. Steel took 36.75% compared to Ray Haynes’ 32.19% in the county. Postmus emerged as an early supporter and helped Steel pick up key endorsements and donors, even hosting an event for Steel while at the same time running his own election. Postmus also introduced Steel to the deputy sheriffs’ association (SEBA), whose highly effective countywide slate mailer included Steel. Steel called Postmus’ move “gutsy” as her challenger, Haynes, is a sitting Assemblyman in Postmus’ neighboring County of Riverside.
In the State Senate, Democrat Assemblyman Joe Baca Jr’s lackluster legislative career was cut short by his decisive defeat at the hands of Assemblywoman Gloria McLeod in the 32nd District, while Joe Jr’s brother, Jeremy, lost his bid for Joe Jr’s 62nd District Assembly seat to Wilmer Carter. This, finally and thankfully, should put an end to talk of a Baca “dynasty” in San Bernardino County politics.
In Congressional contests, the most noteworthy result was 26th District Congressman David Dreier carrying 65% of the vote against two GOP rivals, while the Democrats’ hopeful to take out Dreier in November, Russ Warner, was defeated by Cynthia Matthews 47% to 38%.
Finally, I want to take this opportunity to say that I believe this election has proven to be Bill Postmus’ finest hour. Although his own ultimate victory has been delayed until November, he still holds the chairmanship of the Board of Supervisors until January, as well as the County GOP chair as long as he wants to. Further, as mentioned above, largely because of Postmus’ efforts there will soon be two additional legislative seats representing San Bernardino County for the next six years. And he has more than solidified and reaffirmed his leadership of the County Republican Party. All in all it wasn’t a bad night. Not bad at all.
Results from contested San Bernardino County elections: 62nd S.D. Dem primary (total): Gloria McLeod, 61.3%; Joe Baca Jr., 38.7%. 36th A.D. GOP primary (total): Sharon Runner, 66.3%; Gary Ledford, 33.7%. 59th A.D. GOP primary (total): Anthony Adams, 31.9%; Barry Hartz, 23%; Susan Slater, 17.4%; Chris Lancaster, 16.9%; Kevan Otto, 10.8%. 61st A.D. Dem primary (total): Nell Soto, 70%; Paul Avila, 30%. 62nd A.D. Dem primary (total): Wilmer Carter, 57.54%; Jeremy Baca, 42.2%; 65th A.D. GOP primary (total): Paul Cook, 29%; Brenda Salas, 22.5%; Jim Ayres, 22.2%; Robin Lowe, 21.6%.