On Sunday when I last posted on AD77 I missed a few relevant facts in my analysis which I’d be remiss in not posting. Based for the most part on cash on hand, but also on some earlier polling, and the amount of mail in the box, I’d narrowed the race to Dale (Wainio/local), Anderson (Nygren), and Beecham (Coronado). Turns out Beyer (Justin) dropped a fair barrage of mail that I missed in my pile o’ mail, and raised enough money since disclosure to put her campaign as much in the game as any of the other three. So in short this thing is basically a toss-up, with former Santee Mayor Jack Dale perhaps having a marginal lead. If campaigns send me mail, I’ll post the most entertaining of it in my next post.
May 30th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Duane,
Normally, I set great store by your professional judgement. But as you should know better than I – a few extra pieces of mail do not, and never will, make Beyer a viable candidate.
I was in CA over the weekend walking for Joel. Only he and Dale seemed to have any name ID with live voters. And Dale’s Santee constituents don’t seem to like him at all. No amount of signs or mail will help him with that problem.
May 31st, 2006 at 12:00 am
Duane
Phil Paule had it right, iin contested Republican primaries it all happens in the last 10 days. Polling done in a race like this surely said Dale was leading. We’ll see whether Anderson’s folks pull trigger and take Dale out. Beyer has been in the mail box every day since last Thursday and will be so until the votes are cast. Thanks for posting this.
May 31st, 2006 at 12:00 am
ps to flash readers (and Beyer partisans who freak out that I’m not defending my client on Flash) I beat the crap out of Duane after his post last week, but was unable to tell him what we had coming (hint: bad thing to tell an opponent what your tactics are). Clearly he got up to speed and did the right thing by informing Flash readers that Beyer is in fact in the hunt. Duane didn’t know we had a huge event with La Suer and special guest (FEC McCain Feingold phrasiology…ugh) that did exactly what we knew it would to fuel our last 12 days. Althought I’m not a consultant who walks around saying my clients going to win no matter what (preserving my credibility is important to me)…but I let Duane have it because I knew what we were doing…and his post only ratcheted up the number of calls I was getting…and it distracted me (read: it did what he wanted it to do)…but fortunately I’ve got the best client who stayed focused and let all the gossip run off her back. Let’s see what Anderson does with the polling he took late last week. Developing