While absentee voters are starting to cast ballots today, the race to replace termed-out Assemblyman Russ Bogh in the 65th Assembly District GOP Primary is turning out to be one of the hottest in the state.
As of Friday, Hemet Mayor Robin Lowe had raked in the most in late contributions with $66,000. However, Lowe was lagging as of the March 17th 460 Form filing with $96,000 cash-on-hand, behind San Jacinto Councilman Jim Ayers with $346,000 and Banning Councilwoman Brenda Salas with $180,000. Salas is currently in second place in the late contributions race with $46,000, while Yucca Valley Mayor Paul Cook has taken in $36,000, adding to his $78,000 C-O-H from the last 460 filing. Ayers shows only $25,000 in late contributions, but probably isn’t losing sleep because of his superior war chest. Since the March 17 filing, each candidate also has added whatever contributions under $1,000 may have come in minus whatever they’ve spent since then. The next reports come out May 25th.
Here’s some perspective on each major candidate in this race:
Jim Ayers, notwithstanding a lot of steady progress by all of the aforementioned other major candidates, still has the cash and the horses needed to win. His onsite team is headed by Melissa Ameluxen (Bogh’s District Director on loan) and Mike Richman of Johnson Clark and Associates. Recent endorsements include the CCPOA, and Ayers will announce today the endorsement of the California Small Business Association. He has yet to mail, so he’s conserving resources, and he’s also retired military (Air Force), though unlike Cook it’s not actually indicated on his ballot title (more on that later…). Bottom line, Ayers is still the one to beat in this race.
Brenda Salas was buoyed recently by the CRA endorsement, as well as that of the Minuteman Project, Senator Tom McClintock, former Sen. Dick Mountjoy, and many other conservative stalwarts. Her campaign has been infused with a San Bernardino County-style ground operation led by Joshua Candelaria (County Supervisor Gary Ovitt’s District Director on loan). Consultant is Joe Giardiello. Expect some Independent Expenditures to come her way and against Ayers, as the West Valley Young Republicans, a local YRFC affiliate, have shelled out $55,000 for said purpose since the last reports came out. For her part, Salas has already been in the mailbox with micro-targeted mail and an illegal immigration piece. Bottom line, Salas has gained ground, but still has her work cut out for her.
Paul Cook is the only serious contender from the San Bernardino County side of the district. (For purposes of disclosure, Cook is endorsed by my boss, San Bernardino County Board of Supervisors Chairman Bill Postmus.) Despite Salas’ respectable level of support from San Bernardino County politicians, the fact that Cook lives in the county and has an even more impressive list of San Bernardino County supporters could translate to a considerable factor in the plus column for Cook. While Riverside County makes up two-thirds of the 65th, there are three major contenders divvying up bases of support on that side of the county line. But perhaps the biggest break to date for Cook (or any other candidate in this race for that matter) was granted by a judge in Sacramento Superior Court who made history April 5th by allowing Cook to use the ballot title "Retired Marine Colonel." (Read about it here.) With a large military retiree community as well as the huge Twentynine Palms Marine base in the district, this could be a big factor, but it remains to be seen for sure because nobody has ever been allowed to use such a ballot title before. If history can provide any perspective, one might consider that in 2002 John Benoit, with a ballot title of "CHP Commander", bested businessman Lou Monville in the 64th AD GOP primary despite being outspent by about a three-to-one margin. What’s more, Cook’s military career was particularly distinguished, and he recently dropped a district-wide mail piece so indicating, helping him build positive name-I.D. His consultant is Tab Berg, and his staff includes onsite manager Dylan George, former executive director of the Alameda County G.O.P., and fundraiser Mike Fresquez. While Cook has greatly improved in the standings, it remains to be seen whether he’s a spoiler or a top contender. Bottom line, if Ayers and Salas go mutually nuclear, the Colonel has a shot.
Robin Lowe has gotten her campaign together despite a brief detour in court to get herself placed on the ballot (read about it here). She hit cable TV this past weekend with positive ads, and she received the endorsement of the Press-Enterprise last week. Lowe’s consultant is Jim Nygren. Bottom line, if I were Ayers or Cook, I’d be hoping Lowe goes negative on Salas, the other female candidate in the race, pronto, because Salas has some serious momentum going.
May 8th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Brad:
First of all, I am impressed that you are posting political reports at 3:14 in the morning. That at least proves that you’re not doing this on government time.
I am curious, however, as to why you think a Judge allowing one of the candidates in the 65th AD to use the term “Retired Marine Colonel” was so unusual?
A check of the Secretary of State’s list of Certified Candidates for the June ballot (http://www.ss.ca.gov/elections/election_2006/status/official_cert_list_june_2006.pdf)indicate that many candidates use similar titles.
For example, in the first few dozen pages there is a Retired Teacher, Retired Program Manager, Retired Police Officer, Retired Civil Engineer, Retired Lt. Colonel, Retired Business Person, Retired Military Pilot, Retired Union Representative, Retired Aerospace Engineer, Retired Bank Executive, Retired Judge, Retired Program Manager, Retired Government Analyst and Retired Accountant, all running for office next month.
I agree that “Retired Marine Colonel” is bound to get the candidate some extra votes. I just don’t think it’s that unusual, however.