This post was first attempted yesterday from an airport and didn’t quite work.
As I sit here at LAX reading the news of a new GOP poll showing Brian Bilbray losing to his liberal challenger I can only think one thing – good.
I’ve been warning of a GOP calamity since December, 2004, and its real simple: spending, immigration, lack of leadership on reforming entitlements, and a reactive rather than proactive approach to everything. This is the work product produced by "safe" seats where no one has to compete. Its called CRAP.
If Bilbray loses the only additional thing we need to create wholesale change in the GOP is a few bruising primary challenges to our own members. Then maybe we can dust off the pictures of Reagan, pull out the playbook from 1994 and start winning again on principle
May 6th, 2006 at 12:00 am
He is not losing. The poll is a joke.
May 6th, 2006 at 12:00 am
As I said in a previous post, as a consultant, Dave, you are worth your weight in gold. You really know your stuff. That said, since Bilbray IS your client, of course you would attack the survey.
The good news is that if conservatives come out to vote for Roach, they’ll likely vote for Bilbray. A bigger fear is that conservatives won’t turn out. The biggest fear, of course, is that Bilbray will return to Congress and pick up where he left off.
I would like to see a principled conservative represent the 50th district long-term. Wouldn’t you? (Hint: let’s not get into a debate on Bilbray’s conservatism lest you want to have a lot of stuff posted that we don’t need to remind GOPers about if Roach doesn’t run.)
May 6th, 2006 at 12:00 am
But Jon, the survey DID NOT show Bilbray losing until after push questions. I could write a poll showing Mother Teresa losing to Saddam Hussein after push questions. It is unfair to promote it as “showing Bilbray losing.”
By the way, I agree with both you and Mike as to the failures of our not-at-all-Republican Governor, GOP legislators and majority in Congress. But that is still no reason to elect Francine Busby, which is what Roach’s candidacy would do.
If Roach wants to help the cause, he should trade on the name ID he has purchased to put together a credible write-in against liberal Dem. Susan Davis. That way he would be helping the cause, instead of harming it.
May 6th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Mr. Fleischman:
First, thank you for allowing this dialogue on your web-site. That says a lot about you.
Can we seperate this into 2 issues: (1) Have some GOP office holders lost touch,
and think of themselves as government’s ambassadors to US, rather than OUR
ambassadors to government? (2) Is Brian Bilbray an example of this behavior?
On Question One, I wholeheartedly agree with you. The tone-deafness that caused
some of them to oppose Gov. Arnold’s redistricting reform, preserving their own safe
seats, was a classic example. You are Right about this!
Question 2 (Bilbray): this is where the disconnect appears for many of us in San Diego.
We do not recognize the portrait painted of him………. [And I worked for Bill Morrow this
time by the way, and proudly so].
Brian Bilbray was elected councilman, and then Mayor in a mostly Democratic area,
Imperial Beach, in the 1970s. He was a Lifeguard in his 1st race.
Then he challenged and defeated an entrenched Democrat County Superisor in 1984, the
late Tom Hamilton (a fine gentleman by the way).
In 1994 Bilbray challenged incumbent congresswoman Lynn Schenk, who had won the
district by double-digits in 1992. Ms. Schenk is smart, energetic and attractive. Schenk
outspent Brian Bilbray by $1.4 million to $.75 million. Somehow Bilbray won by 5,000 votes.
And he did so in a district that gave George Bush Sr. 31% of the vote in 1992, and Sen. Bob
Dole 40% for president in 1996.
This was one of THE key districts in the country which made a Speaker Newt Gingrich possible.
Brian is well-liked and regarded by most of the San Diego Republican and conservative activists
that I know. He has never taken the easy way … he has been the underdog again, and again.
Over time, San Diegans have come to respect his courage and persistence.
In summary, I agree with you on the Main Point: to renew our conservative faith and hold
our elected officials accountable.
With respect, however, Brian Bilbray may be the wrong focus for those legitimate concerns.
If he wins on June 6th, I believe he will be a congressman who will make us proud.
May 7th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Not to distract from the Flashreport’s official pastime – the debate on Bilbray – but, Mr. Gilliard, if we’re going to spread the blame for the collective failure of the GOP to live up to its stated principles, let’s not let Bush off the hook. Most of the GOP congressmembers who’ve seen fit to dramatically expand the national debt and scope of government, and run rampant on our Constitutional liberties have done so at the behest of their leadership – the same leadership that’s playing the incumbent-protection game in saving Bilbray’s bacon right now. The Congressional leadership has ordered its rank and file to do so at the bidding of the socialist who has occupied the White House for the last 6 years. Bush has set the agenda for bigger, more intrusive, more expensive government, and it is at his feet that the blame for a GOP rout in November must ultimately be laid.