I have never met Eric Roach. People tell me he is a great guy. He just lost an election to Brian Bilbray (pictured below, to the right) in the 50th CD. I hope he does not run another campaign June 6th.
Given all the residue from Duke Cunningham’s crimes, It is not going to be easy to hold on to this normally safe Republican seat on this confusing ballot where the general election for the special and the primary for 2006 are on the same ballot. Roach can only win the primary by bringing Bilbray down which will only help the Democrat in the race. The most likely scenario for a successful Roach is to win the primary and allow a Democrat to win the general thereby having to face an incumbent in November. That gives us a very high probability of losing the seat completely. This year will be close enough without losing what should be safe Republican seats over internal squabbles.
Politics is a team sport and the Republican Conference in Washington must play as a team. I hope that Mr. Roach sees that the best thing for the team is for him to say on the bench for this one. If not, his participation may cost the team the game, and maybe the championship. I probably line up more closely on most issues with Roach. But a Democrat majority in the House next year is not going to help me, or him, advance any of those issues.
May 4th, 2006 at 12:00 am
John, a couple of thoughts for you. The first is that Bilbray is so off-campus on important issues for conservatives that you will see a depressed GOP turnout. A Roach candidacy will bring conservative voters out on June 6 (in a district that largely has no other competitive races to draw out voters), which will help Roach in the primary, but also help Bilbray for the special on the same day.
More importantly is that in that special election primary, about 70% of votes cast for Republican candidates went to conservatives, but the vote was split 14 ways. Bilbray eeked out a win of 15ish percent by outpoling Roach by less than one percentage point.
If conservatives don’t rally behind a conservative now (as most have — the bulk of the conservative candidates who got that 70% are urging Roach to run), Bilbray will end up in Congress for life (incumbents never lose).
The 50th, a strong GOP seat, doesn’t deserve someone who was horrible on so many issues when in Congress (how do you get an “F” from the NRA when the GOP controls Congress?).
The single largest problem facing the GOP is this: what do you do when you have a majority of both houses of Congress, and the Presidency, and government continues to grow?
Clearly the GOP needs to start to pay more attention to the KIND of members that make up our majority in Congress. The pivitol battle for the heart and soul of our party in Washington is probably the one taking launched by the conservative Republican Study Committee (of which you are a member), to really impose fiscal discipline. Roach, like you, would join the RSC on his first day in office. Bilbray would join the “what do we need to do to get that guy onboard” group.
I recognize that there is an added level of complexity with the special election and the regular primary election taking place in CD 50 on the same day.
In the end, I guess I want Roach to win because I am worried that our majority is most imperiled not by Democrats, but by liberal Republicans who have hijacked the public policy achievements that our majority should be achieving.
Anyways, Roach will decide in the next day or two (through a decision, or lack of one) what his plans are — and I hope he runs. But long term, if we don’t face the fact that we don’t have a conservative majority in Congress, and achieving one is critical to the future of America, we will lose our majority because conservatives simply won’t vote.
There is a reason why the lead story in last week’s Human Events Magazine was an appeal to its conservative readers to ‘re-elect the House’ — because they know that their subscribers are fed up with growth in the size and scope of government, given to us by your GOP colleages (not you).
That’s my 10 cents this morning.
Jon
P.S. In case you were wondering, Bilbray got that ‘F’ because twice during his stint in Congress, he appeared at press conferences with President Clinton to call for bi-partisan support of gun control. Sigh.
May 4th, 2006 at 12:00 am
From the Almanac of American Politics (2000) …
Brian Bilbray’s vote scores included 64% from ACU, 75% from the Christian Coalition,
79% from NFIB, 63% from National Tax Limitation Committee.
Bilbray’s scores from liberal groups included: 20% from the ADA, 20% from ACLU, 33% from American
Friends Service Committee.
Individual votes: Bilbray voted FOR a School Prayer Amendment to the US Constitution,
FOR ending race-based set-asides on highway contracts, AGAINST cutting
money for B-2 Bombers, AGAINST ending the Radio Marti broadcasts into Fidel
Castro’s Cuba, FOR requiring a 2/3 House majority to raise taxes, FOR IRAs to pay for college
education expenses.
He cast these votes representing a district which voted for Clinton over Dole in 1996
by a margin of 114,081 (43%) to 82,834 (31%) with Perot getting 25%.
Brian Bilbray was never Pete McCloskey or John Lindsay. His voting record was moderate-conservative
in a moderate-liberal district. A single issue (2nd Amendment) should not trump this record.
May 4th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Look, I am happy to make a list twice as long on votes where Bilbray squished. But that isn’t the issue. Frankly, I think the 50th CD deserves to have a conservative Congressman for the long haul. Not a squish. I want to elect a Congressman that, frankly, maybe could not have been elected to that neighboring, more liberal district. I want to elect someone who will do the right thing because HE believes it. I want to elect someone who votes HIS beliefs, not someone who gauges what positions are popular in their district.
Bilbray is better than Busby – but let’s not make him out to be a conservative. He’s not.
May 4th, 2006 at 12:00 am
John, I am proud to say you are my representative. Since moving to OC (from San Diego) you have been my assemblyman, state senator, and now my congressman. In the 90’s I was represented by Brian Bilbray and I can honestly say Brian Bilbray is no John Campbell.
Bringing this debate closer to home, our district is definitely a conservative one (as is the 50th). What if the situation in San Diego had occurred in Orange County? What if our special election had been in April instead of last fall? What if Marilyn Brewer would have narrowly beaten you? If you would have had the chance to challenge her in the June primary, what would you have done?
Speaking to Jon’s point I can tell this, I would have completely supported you in my “what if” scenario. If you would have backed down from a primary challenge (as you believe Roach should), I certainly would not have voted for Brewer.
That is the situation in San Diego. Brian Bilbray is a Marilyn Brewer Republican. The 50th deserves a conservative representative. Many people voted for a conservative candidate and they will not vote for Bilbray unless they are given a strong reason to (i.e. hold your nose and vote for Bilbray for the short term and Roach for the full term).
May 4th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Remember, we don’t have to vote for Busby to let her win – we can just skip that contest, or to send a stronger message, vote for the Libertarian.
Bilbray is the closest thing we could have to Son-of-Cunningham. His Metabalife and Bajagua Project ($600 million no-bid construction contract to a newly-created group that’s never built an outhouse, much less a secondary wastewater treatment plant) lobbying efforts stink and give the Democrats the right ammo at the right time to steal this seat for at least 2.5 years if Bilbray is the best we are willing to do.