Logan Jenkins, a columnist for the San Diego Union Tribune, lays out Governor Schwarzenegger for being at fault for the current bizarre predicament facing Republicans and voters in the 50th Congressional District.
Republicans just finished a bruising primary where well over a dozen candidates, for the most part 
overwhelmingly conservative, sliced up the special election vote so much that moderate Brian Bilbray, with about 16% of the vote, won the right to carry the GOP banner against Democrat Francine Busby in the June run-off. To the victor of this one-on-one battle goes the right to fill out the rest of Duke Cunningham’s unexpired term until the end of this year.
But what about the next term? The full two years. And, of course, the decades beyond for a safely ensconced politician in a state where the partisan gerrymander ensures that general elections are not competitive?
The regular primary for this House seat is on the SAME DAY as the special election run-off, and every Republican candidate who was on the special election ballot also appears on the primary ballot (each candidate was hoping that they would win that special).
Thus lies the quandary. All Republicans have a vested interest in showing Francine Busby the door, and letting her get back to her teaching job. None of us want her in Congress. Nevertheless, Brian Bilbray hardly holds appear for conservative voters who overwhelmingly voted for other candidates.
So the first question is whether conservatives will bother to turn out at all to cast a vote for Bilbray? More than ever, conservatives have a reason to just stay home if their choices are between a Democrat and a moderate Republican. After all, as you have read in these pages, moderate Republicans are to blame for the fact that despite having a GOP majority in both houses of Congress, there have been no significant spending cut bills passed and placed on President Bush’s desk for signature.
What then would get conservatives to the polls? What would turn out GOPers who are frustrated with the lack of results in Washington, D.C.? Well, I am not an expert, but certainly a competitive GOP primary with a conservative running hard on conservative issues would seem to do the trick. If conservatives who ran in the 50th CD special election could unite behind one standard-bearer in the primary — say conservative businessman Eric Roach (pictured above) who came in a close second to Bilbray, topping the other conservatives in the races), then there would be a reason for conservatives to turn out.
Busby wouldn’t have a chance as the high GOP turnout for a competitive GOP primary would also ensure her loss as the dynamic would be similar to last week’s election. While conservatives would be turning out to vote for Roach, they certainly would (with noses held) for Bilbray over the far-leftist Busby as a ‘caretaker’ for the rest of the term.
(I believe that Tom McClintock’s presence on the special election ballot for the recall helped to ensure its passage, having an articulate conservative on the ballot.)
Understand that if Roach doesn’t run, not only do we have a conservative turnout issue, but we also have a risk nationally of sending a message that the GOP doesn’t understand that our challenge is our own governing majority. Re-electing a former Congressmen with a strong record, while in the House, as being a moderate, only would strengthen the hand of those in Congress who are comfortable presiding over big government. Fortunately Republicans might have a win-win in rejecting Busby in the special, but at the same time unifying behind a solid conservative for the full two-year term.
Of course, most frustrated in this whole process, I’m sure, is Bilbray who I think honestly believes himself to be some sort of libertarian on fiscal issues. Well, it comes back to the same notion I have touted for years — the idea of a ‘fiscally conservative/socially moderate’ legislator is a myth. I don’t know if it is that the fire and energy and passion that one has for social issues makes one more ‘hard-core’ on fiscal issues — but I can only tell you that I have been repeatedly disappointed by these so-called ‘libertarians’ who (on occasion) get elected, and then quickly show an ‘accomodationist’ attitude towards fiscal liberalism. Bilbray can try to argue that he is different than all of those others, but my level of cynicism at the spending in Congress and the track record of social moderates who have conned me in the past is too long.
Anyways, these are my opinions, and I invite discussion on them.
Have a great day!
Jon
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