Tonight, Republican activists and donors from all around San Diego County will cozy up at the Kona Kai resort at Shelter Island for the County GOP’s annual Lincoln-Reagan Dinner (if you know local party boss Ron Nehring, it’s not hard to understand how his hero, Ronald Reagan, got equal billing on the marquis on this annual event).
There will be a "who’s who" of the Republican scene on hand with Senate Republican Leader Dick Ackerman, incoming Assembly Republican leader George Plescia, San Diego Mayor Jerry Sanders and a host of statewide Republican candidates all coming to support their party, and hear from keynote speaker Jim Gilmore, the former Republican Governor of Virginia and also a former Chairman of the Republican National Committee.
But it won’t be Gilmore that is the star attraction at this event tonight, nor Ackerman or Plescia, or even my buddy Ron Nehring. No, tonight is going to be all about Brian Bilbray and Eric Roach. As you have all read, Bilbray appears to have eked out a narrow victory in a crowded field for the honor of being the lone GOP contender on the ballot against liberal Democrat Francine Busby in June. As I wrote yesterday, all Republicans should be united behind Bilbray in that one on one race. Bilbray or Busby… Even for a conservative like me, who did not advocate Bilbray as a first choice, there is a clear contrast between those two candidates.
That said, the bigger question is what will happen for the official Republican Primary for the full-two year term for that House seat. 50th District voters will actually be voting TWICE on the same ballot in terms of Congressional representation. They will choose between Bilbray and Busby for who will serve in the House through the end of the year, filling out the rest of Cunningham’s term. As I said, this is an easy choice.
But Republican voters will also have their first real opportunity, in a contest where ONLY REPUBLICANS will vote, to choose their nominee for the November show down with Busby. I am sure that Brian Bilbray will vigorously campaign for the GOP nomination for the full two-year seat (one can’t think that he got into this for only an 6 month stint). Bilbray might be able to expand his slice of the pie a bit — he can take all of the establishment endorsements and combine that with the momentum from the ‘open primary’ win he narrowly won on Tuesday, and parlay that into a strong run in a GOP-only primary. He would probably enjoy the support of National and State party leaders as well, who will have trouble distinguishing between rallying behind Bilbray on one side of the ballot against Busby, and the fact that the first chance for just Republicans to choose their Congressman is taking place on the next page over.
Moderates in this primary seemed to coalesce around Bilbray in the final days of the open primary. Wealthy businessman Alan Uke attacked Roach, but gave Bilbray a pass. In the meantime, conservatives split up their vote with Morrow, Kaloogian and Roach battling it out until the end. There is an opportunity for conservatives to unify behind on candidate in the closed GOP primary on the June ballot.
This takes us back to tonight’s dinner. Brian Bilbray will want to give the speech of his career tonight — but his audience will not be Gilmore and company, it will be businessman Eric Roach (pictured), and Bill Morrow and Howard Kaloogian. If Bilbray can’t get these folks to support him to be the Congressman for the next two decades, by endorsing him not just for the special election runoff but rather for the actual ‘real deal’ GOP primary for the full two year seat, he may be in serious trouble. That said, it would be trouble of his own making. Conservatives have trouble with Bilbray because he has been soft (or worse) on a lot of issues that are important to us, especially social issues.
I’m not in a position to tell readers whether Eric Roach will gear up a campaign for Congress in a closed June primary. But I will tell you this — if he can unify conservatives around the idea that a hard-charger who will make a difference within the governing GOP majority in Washington, who will join the Republican Study Committee (the conservative caucus in the House) and fight for real change should represent the 50th long-term — then he should seriously think about it.
And for those people out there who would question the wisdom of a GOP primary taking place on the same ballot as the special election runoff, and how that can advantage Busby — I would just say this… One more or less Republican in the House the next six months is not going to change anything – it really won’t. Republicans aren’t using their majority now to reduce the size and scope of spending, and one less vote for six months isn’t going to change that. I think Bilbray still wins the short-seat because the increased GOP turnout with a competitive primary for the full-term as well as the overall increased turnout because these elections are on the regular June ballot take Busby out of the hunt. That said, what is that saying, "One step back to take two steps forward?" I’m open to that. I am that frustrated with the GOP majority’s lack of results in Washington, D.C.
I think Roach should seriously think about a run. He should talk to the other leading conservatives who ran in that special election, and determine if the political will exists to send a Congressman to Washington in January who fight for all four "F’s" – freedom, free-enterprise, faith and family.
I don’t dislike Brian Bilbray, and he clearly would be a better vote than Francine Busby. But his record in Congress from his last stint, plus all of his insider endorsements from the very Congressmen, like Ways & Means Committee Chairman Bill Thomas, that are the problem in Washington — lead me to the conclusion that Bilbray is simply not going to lead an RSC-driven charge on the Hill. On the contrary, he will "pin-up" and fit right into the club.
Well, it’s not me that Bilbray needs to convince. It’s several hundred Republicans gathered for dinner tonight, and especially one Eric Roach, who has to decide if he has the political fortitude and courage take the next step. If he does, this GOPer from the neighboring county to the north will send him a check. I care that much.
April 13th, 2006 at 12:00 am
This in from a long-time political activist in California:
“As the debate continues about whether or not Roach should run a campaign in the primary, the makeup of this district is worth noting:
This is a very conservative district and Bilbray cold stand to take a pounding and STILL beat Busby in the special runoff. Bill Simon beat Gray Davis in that district by over 18%. And in the Recall Arnold and Tom McClintock together beat Bustamante by about 55% (75%- 20.3%).
In last year’s disastrous special election ALL of the governor’s initiative won in the district. Prop 74 on teacher tenure won by 22 points and the socialist electricity scheme lost by 22 points. These, in the worst GOP turnout special election statewide in recent memory.
There’s plenty of room for a spirited primary campaign without the chance of Bilbray losing.”
April 13th, 2006 at 12:00 am
I can’t believe this post. After reading it I know why the California state party is in shambles right now.
April 13th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Jon, you just have to be kidding. Your scenario is not just pure fantasy, it would be a disaster.
GOP voters in CD 50 just completed their “primary” – but because you don’t like the results you try to rationalize a scenario for a re-run.
Brian Bilbray won the GOP Primary. Now it is time to rally behind our Republican nominee.
If the GOP fails to rally, this thing could get close.
If there is another GOP knock-down, we could lose this seat – and start a media frenzy that will give Democrats a surge nationally. And let Francine spend several months building strength and cast who-know-how-many votes as a member of Congress
I do not know Mr. Roach, but talking to people who do know him, he doesn’t appear to be the type to sacrifice the GOP by putting petulance and ego ahead of national interests.
April 13th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Nate and Tab –
We HAVE a GOP majority in Congress and our party’s primary goal of securing liberty for Americans by reducing the size and scope of government is failing.
The GOP achieved a majority in Congress and what did it achieve? Spending is UP 33% since we got it. So, one is left with the conclusion that the KIND of Republican we send to Washington, D.C., is the number one issue facing our party.
Ideally, the House Leadership would be putting up benchmark votes on significant reductions in the size and scope in government. Then we as a party would have a clear idea of which Republicans won’t make the reductions. Then each should be having a primary challenge, backed by the national, state and local party organizations.
The Republican Party can look in a mirror if they want to see the face of big government. We have no one to blame but ourselves.
Because of this situation, I have little tolerance for entrenching someone into a safe GOP seat that is going to tolerate this mess.
Why do I think that Bilbray will tolerate it?
1) He has been endorsed by many in Congress who have been a part of it.
2) When he was in Congress he was known as a part of the moderate group (according to four different Congressmen to whom I spoke who served with him)
3) There has been no rhetoric coming from him in his campaign about the failure of the Republican leadership in Congress.
My expectation right now is that he will be just another vote for the status-quo — which is risk averse, unwilling to plunge into the risky waters of purging economic liberals from our party and instead accepting our party’s fate — comfort with presiding over big government.
I am a realist. I know that our GOP majority has achieved a number of good things. But there is only one ultimate test — have we lowered SPENDING, and after that, have we lowered the DEFICIT and lowered TAXES.
I will reiterate what I have said all along – I pray that a Congressman Bilbray in the 50th District finds his sea-legs, and becomes the loudest and most vocal critic of Republicans who will not reduce spending.
But I admit to being cynical on this stuff nowadays.
I won’t be at the GOP dinner tonight – but lets hear Bilbray give a speech centered around what he would do to get REPUBLICANS to actually pass out large spending reductions. He’d best be careful, though — many of his supporters in D.C. seem to like the status quo…
April 13th, 2006 at 12:00 am
All of you grow the government Republicans need to get a grip on yourselves. It’s obvious the conservative voters far outnumbered the moderate voters in this election/district. Mr. Roach should re-load and go guns blazing against Bilbray in the race for the nomination for the full term. Excellent post Jon.
April 13th, 2006 at 12:00 am
By the way, I am open to readers giving me some solutions on how do reduce the size and scope of the federal government besides finding and rooting out liberals masquerading as Republicans.
Just saying “Let’s elect a Republican majority” has failed us.
The reality is that we do not have a CONSERVATIVE majority, and we will not see any shrinking in the size of government until we do.
April 13th, 2006 at 12:00 am
It seems to be conservatives in California are really good at electing Democratic Majorities. I really would like this “expertise” you guys have not to spread to DC.
April 13th, 2006 at 12:00 am
The term moderate Republican is a big joke these days. They vote liberal on all the social issues, but they also vote for bigger government too. They’re all talk and no action and they hate to be called on it by conservative activists. It’s funny because when election season rolls around, they ratchet up the “I am a conservative” rhetoric, but once the election is over they forget about all those lofty words.
April 13th, 2006 at 12:00 am
When Bilbray entered Congress there was a large deficit, when he left, there was a $155 Billion SURPLUS. So the record, the facts are clear on thatfront – even if it doesn’t fit your aurgument.
If your concern is the deficit and size of government, you need to look to those who served after Bilbray.
April 13th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Bilbray was in Congress for six sessions:
YEAR – % of increase in federal spending
1995 – 3.7
1996 – 3.0
1997 – 2.6
1998 – 3.2
1999 – 3.0
2000 – 5.1
Now admittedly, since then, the government has been spending at even a more alarming rates.
Spending is the issue, not how much debt there is on the American people. That is important, but the taxes rates can drop and the deficits can shrink if the spending excesses are abated.
April 13th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Regarding Tab’s comments: I genuinely like Bilbray; I think he’ll do a better job in his new district than many here think he will; and I truly wish him well.
That said, I got really sick and tired (about, oh, 10 years ago) of the mindless partisan zombies – usually RINOs, but on both ends of the GOP ideological spectrum – who adopt that sanctimonous, teeth-grating, eat-your-peas tone the day after a primary to lecture the rest of us on the need to rally around “our” Republican nominee. That brand of complacent claptrap has given us a socialist president who’s created $3 trillion of new federal debt for us to pay, driven a backhoe over the Constitution, and entangled us in a messy war with no discernible strategy – with the complicity of a Congress more concerned with reelection than competent governance. I’ve had the displeasure of listening to too many of those types of cheap partisan pitches for standard bearers in CA state races who wouldn’t know or care how to provide limited, competent government unless their own careers depended on it. I’ve voted against more than one government-growing, liberty-shrinking RINO son of a bitch in more than one general election – and I have no intention of discontinuing the practice.
I have mixed thoughts and feelings about whether Bilbray is a good choice to serve in Congress for the next 20 years; I think the argument can be made either way, and in any case, I truly wish him well. But fatuous calls to rally round “our” Republican nominee should not prevent Roach from considering a challenge in the primary for the full term; an honest cogitation on whether it would be in the best interests of his district, his country, and his children, should be his guiding light.
Sorry for the extended comment, but Tab’s comment struck an old, raw nerve.
April 13th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Jon is correct. Spending is the issue…unless you all thought the capital gains taxes from dotcom stocks was going to continue forever.
Either way, Republicans cannot take credit for surplus generated from the dotcom years. That credit goes to Al Gore because HE was the one who invented the internet.
April 13th, 2006 at 12:00 am
My comment was not meant as a criticism m of anyone or their motives or values.
But there are facts: Bilbray IS the GOP nominee who will be facing Democrat Francine in the run-off – that is not a value judgment, just a fact.
Jon noted the growth in government spending during the time Bilbray was in office – (1995 – 3.7, 1996 – 3.0, 1997 – 2.6, 1998 – 3.2, 1999 – 3.0. 2000 – 5.1) those too are facts.
Those numbers have gone up SIGNIFICANTLY since Bilbray left Congress – again a simple fact.
Another measure could be the “pork” scale: Number of Pork Projects in Federal Spending Bills (source: Club for Growth website and Chris Edwards’ book, Downsizing the Federal Government)
2005 – 13,997
2004 – 10,656
2003 – 9,362
2002 – 8,341
2001 – 6,333
2000 – 4,326
1999 – 2,838
1998 – 2100
1997 – 1,596
1996 – 958
1995 – 1439
Again, just facts (note that the number of pork projects has tripled since Bilbray left).
No one can honestly claim to know that any candidate WILL be better than any other candidate at holding down federal spending. But at least Brian has a record of restraining federal spending. Everything else is just conjecture.
People are free to vote how they wish – I never object to people who vote their conscience – and there will be several names on the ballot to choose from.
I can however, do without the name calling. Like my gramps used to say “if ya can’t disagree without being disagreeable, then go talk to someone else.”
April 13th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Tab,
I deeply regret the ad hominem tone of my earlier comments, while standing by their substance. Your forbearance of the former proves you more of a gentleman than me.
One thing that bears remembering about that specific district: it’s loaded with mega-millionaires and billionaires. Bilbray has never been a wealthy man, just a tenacious fighter and worker. If he proves wanting, I wouldn’t count on a 20-year reign; there are enough large bank accounts in Rancho Santa Fe for one of their owners to buy the seat out from under Bilbray, if the resolve to spend is there (as it so often is not among self-funders.)
I continue to predict Bilbray will adapt to his new district, just as he adapted his persona when he moved from the South Bay to the central San Diego coastal areas. If not, a patriot with a few hundred million dollars to spend can always pony up.
April 13th, 2006 at 12:00 am
From what I have seen of Roach recently and what I have seen over Bilbray over the last 15+ years of Bilbray, I like Roach. I hope he runs in the June primary and I hope he wins.
With that said, the last thing the House needs is another mega-millionaire. Usually those types have little interest in being a member of the House. They have higher aspirations (i.e. Michael Huffington, Jane Harman and I suspect one day Issa).
It sure would be nice if these mega-millionaires would get involved earlier. They could fund a lot of propositions and legislative races and prove themselves. Instead they usually decide they are bored and would like to become a Senator or Governor via the House.
At any rate, if Roach is up for the challenge, I will be happy to walk the rough streets of Rancho Santa Fe for him. I won’t knock on doors but I will buzz intercoms at the main gates.
April 13th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Dwight, I’m not a big fan of mega-millionaires in office either, esp. those that discover their love for politics right about the time they have a gofer file their papers at the registrar. I merely meant to suggest that Bilbray’s new district lends itself to remedies if he proves to be a leadership adherent. (Personally, I’ve never seen the appeal, esp. for self-made ones. Take Issa. He went from being Master of the Universe at DEI to being one guy among 435 in Congress. What am I missing here?)
Bridging your and Jon’s views, Tab’s and Nate’s views, and my views (which are the usual product of an insane mind):
I think your and Jon’s objections to Bilbray are his history of being a lockstep vote with leadership – and the current House leadership is statist, not limited-gov’t/pro-liberty. Point well taken. Remember also that Bilbray was something of a maverick during his earlier service on the Supes. Mounting a bulldozer and flipping off the Army Corps of Engineers isn’t exactly the mark of a safe “leadership vote.”
Tab, your numbers re: federal spending during Bilbray’s tenure are much more persuasive than the calls for unity. That said: in a perverse way, they make Jon’s case against Bilbray; during those years, the GOP leadership jockeyed for position on Clinton’s right flank on fiscal issues. When Bush took over (in the same election in which Bilbray lost his first seat), big spending, big government, and a big police state were suddenly in. I believe Jon’s and Dwight’s (and mine, to a lesser extent) concerns are that Bilbray will do what he’s told. Their arguments are also persuasive.
Bottom line: unless Roach does launch an insurgency, Bilbray goes to Congress. Until then, this speculation is worth about what we’re being paid for it. :)
April 14th, 2006 at 12:00 am
It’s going to be interesting to watch Mr. Bilbray fight a two front war if Mr Roach decides to run for the full term seat. Has this ever happened before? It will be interesting to watch to see how Mr. Bilbray positions himself against Busby in the runoff for the special election. If he moves to the center(or left), he is going to alienate conservatives who will be voting for either him or Mr. Roach on the other ballot for the nomination for the full term. What’s more important for him…six months in Congress again and done or does he claim to be a conservative like Tom Harman just accomplished to fight off the challenge from Roach. What strategery will he go with?
April 14th, 2006 at 12:00 am
BILBRAY LEAD NOW 1,053 VOTES
The San Diego County Registrar of Voters issued an Updated Vote
Count today at 4:58 pm, after processing 9,000 more absentees.
It shows Bilbray widening his advantage:
Brian Bilbray 20,880
Eric Roach 19,827
Here is the link: http://www.sdvote.org/election/special.xml
There are 1,000 absentees/provisionals remaining.
The total combined GOP vote is now 53.5 % to the Dems 45.0%.
Minor parties have 1.4% combined.
April 14th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Not only is Brian Bilbray from Imperial Beach, CA, he proudly listed on his website the endorsements of Bill Thomas and Don Young (the father of the Bridge to Nowhere).
http://bilbrayforcongress.com/endorsements/
That is not showing independence and a need for reform. It shows he is proudly supported by the biggest abusers of earmarks (pork!).
The conservative vote is far higher than Bilbray. Hopefully Kaloogian and Morrow (along with others) will support a Roach candidacy.
However, that is for conservatives in CD 50 to decide.
April 14th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Morrow will probably fall in line and support Bilbray. This is because he is a CLASS ACT. Roach and Kaloogian are in it for ego.
April 14th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Nate, Brian carpetbagging into a new congressional district (different from the one he represented in the 90s) isn’t whatI would call humility. Though I would somewhat agree on the Kaloogian. Roach has only ran for office one time.