1:30 am UPDATE: 100% in, Bilbray by 880 votes. Approximately 10,000 left to count, but Roach would need to get approximately 20% of those versus 10% on Bilbray’s part to change this…ain’t gonna happen. The FlashReport calls it for Brian. Congratulations!
Oh yeah, a run off against Busby in June. Will the conservatives coalesce behind Bilbray, since the primary for the next term is on the same ballot? There will be tremendous pressure to do so. Anyone taking a bite out of Brian on "the other part of the ballot" will also be helping Busby in her effort to win the remainder of the Cunningham term. A big risk for anyone wanting to take that chance.
Based on the number of GOP votes cast for all candidates, especially when many said low turnout and Republican disenchantment could drive a Busby outright victory, I say she’s cooked in June. Make that November too.
FRANCINE BUSBY
56147
43.92%
BRIAN P. BILBRAY
19366
15.15%
ERIC ROACH
18486
14.46%
HOWARD KALOOGIAN
9525
7.45%
BILL MORROW
6886
5.39%
ALAN UKE
5120
4.00%
All the results here.
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12:04 am UPDATE: 94% counted, Bilbray hanging on by 845 votes:
FRANCINE BUSBY
54370
43.89%
BRIAN P. BILBRAY
18738
15.13%
ERIC ROACH
17893
14.44%
HOWARD KALOOGIAN
9170
7.40%
BILL MORROW
6726
5.43%
ALAN UKE
4969
4.01%
Count this one over, at least for tonite. ROV’s got some countin’ to do, but since Brian held the GOP lead the entire night, don’t expect any surprises forthcoming. I’m off to bed…looks like a long night left in O.C.
___________________________________________________
With 66.5% counted, Busby will definitely not break 50%, and Bilbray leads Roach by 1,071 votes:
FRANCINE BUSBY
45963
43.28%
BRIAN P. BILBRAY
16268
15.32%
ERIC ROACH
15197
14.31%
HOWARD KALOOGIAN
7856
7.40%
BILL MORROW
6148
5.79%
ALAN UKE
4271
4.02%
Watch the updates here.
April 12th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Barry:
Let’s compare the combined GOP vote yesterday in CD 50 to the combined Demo and Libertarian ballots:
GOP votes 54.2 %
Demo votes 45.2 %
Libertarian 0.6
Immigration will be the #1 issue in June, and Bilbray has an utterly solid
conservative record on that, stretching back two decades.
I expect Brian to win June 6 by a minimum 10 points.
April 12th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Not only is Bilbray strong on immigration, Busby supports the McCain Kennedy Anarchy Bill.
One of these days someone is going to begin to get it into the public consciousness just how absolutely radical that legislation is, to the point that it could possibly wipe out the very existence of the United States as a sovereign nation.
In the meantime, it should be at least a little bit of political baggage for Busby that should peel off a couple percent of her potential support.
By the way, I don’t know wheter it’s permissible to pitch a book here but I wrote a book titled “Immigration Politics” that will soon be available at amazon.com and can already be obtained at authorhouse.com.
I mention the 50th district special election in there, although I indicated that the front-runners were Bilbray and Morrow, which turned out to be a bit off from what actually transpired.
-Lance Sjogren
April 12th, 2006 at 12:00 am
By the way- I wonder whether immigration may have swung enough votes to cause Bilbray rather than Roach to win the primary.
The fact that if I had lived in that district that I would have voted for Bilbray wouldn’t prove much because I am a hardcore single-issue immigration reform voter, and I would have voted for Bilbray both because of his rock solid track record on that issue but also because I read some statement about a campaign flyer of Roach’s that said something about “temporary workers”. I am not dead set against absolutely any temporary worker program, but I interpret such words as being possible codewords signaling a potential willingness to support amnesty.
I don’t know whether there are a lot of the primary voters that are hard core enough on the issue that they would have swung toward Bilbray on account of those considerations. But I bet it did affect at least a few hundred votes.
April 12th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Also, my guess is that Roach would not have been likely to join the immigration reform caucus. That is one litmus test for me on how strongly committed a candidate is to immigration reform.
But I didn’t follow the day to day news about the campaign, so if my impression is mistaken then I encourage someone to correct me on that.
April 12th, 2006 at 12:00 am
By the way- one thing I’m curious about.
Not really being familiar with the dynamics of the race, I saw Roach leading among the absentees, and figured he probably had it in the bag since my impression is that he was the “new kid on the block” that took off at the tail end of the race.
Then when Bilbray actually won, I figured that the mainstay of Roach’s candidacy must have been an aggressive effort to win a big absentee vote.
Is that a correct assessment?
April 12th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Roach was never in the lead. I watched the returns the whole way. Bilbray started out the night with a tiny 100 vote lead in absentees, and it grew from there. I agree about Roach being too weak on immigration from the district. On Roger Hedgecock he hemmed and hawed about “no amnesty”. He was the only major republican not to give a straight answer on that.
April 12th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Correct, Bilbray led wire to wire.