"If I had to guess, Democrat Francine Busby will be voting for Brian Bilbray this Tuesday, because that is whom she despirately hopes to run against – the candidate who makes this seat the must vulnerable to a GOP loss." – Jon Fleischman, Publisher of the FlashReport.
In California’s 50th Congressional District, the primary for special election to replace the disgraced and now-imprisoned Randy "Duke" Cunningham will take place in just three days. National attention will be paid to the outcome of this race. After all, no politician in memorable history has disgraced the office of Congress more flagrantly than Cunningham did, and add to it that as a special election, it is the only Congressional race being voted on in the country this Tuesday.
Of particular interest has been the activity surrounding the campaign of Democrat candidate 
Francine Busby (pictured to the left). It’s actually pretty surprising given the overwhelming GOP registration in this House seat that includes some of the most "safe Republican" zip codes in America. Recent polls indicate the Busby is likely to end up with a higher percentage of the final vote than she should — if she we were just pulling Democrat votes. Nationally there are liberal groups that see enough of an opportunity here that Busby is attracting funds from around the country. Similarly, the National Republican Party is also concerned enough they they made a substantial "anti-Busby" television media buy going into the last few days.
It is surprising that Busby has shown such strong numbers — the conventional wisdom would normally be that given the lack of competition on the Democratic side of this primary, that the vibrant and vocal and high-profile donnybrook for who will be the eventual GOP nominee should not only be tying down all of the Republican voters as they seek to select a standard-bearer, but given the ‘open’ nature of this primary (any voters can vote for any candidates, regardless of their party registration) many Democrats should be ‘crossing-over’ to vote in the Republican primary. Clearly this is not happening.
If I had to guess, Democrat Francine Busby will be voting for Brian Bilbray this Tuesday, because that is whom she despirately hopes to run against – the candidate who makes this seat the must vulnerable to a GOP loss.
It is the dynamics of this particular race at this particular time with the actions of the specific former-occupant of this House seat that make the quest of former Congressman-turned-federal lobbyist Brian Bilbray a tough one for not only himself, but for the Republican Party. Conventional wisdom would be that a moderate GOPer like Bilbray, who both in ideology and temperament is to the left of the other Republicans clustered at top of the large field of candidates, would be pulling a tremendous amount of cross-over votes. He, more so than a Roach, a Morrow, or a Kaloogian, would attract votes due to his moderate-liberal views and voting record on key social issues. But this does not seem to be the case. Why is this?
Let me first say that in no way am I trying to imply or infer that Brian Bilbray is an unethical person,
or would commit a criminal act. But that having been said, politics is often about perception. There is simply no getting around the fact that Bilbray is a lobbyist, and a part of the ‘club’ of Washington insiders.
I believe that of any of the leading GOP contenders for the party’s nomination, Brian Bilbray (pictured to the right) represents the most risk for Republicans losing the 50th District in the June run-off election. There is no getting around the fact that he is a federal lobbyist by profession at a time when if you "Google" lobbyist, all you get are photos, stories and links to disgraced criminal uber-lobbyist Jack Abramoff (pictured to the left). He also represents the 
Congressional ‘status quo’ at a time when Republicans in Congress have squandered an opportunity to reign in federal spending – and in fact have presided over a 33% growth in federal spending since 1994 (part of which took place when Bilbray was in Congress). These combine into powerful tools for a Busby campaign in the June election.
Separate from the pragmatic reasons why I think that Bilbray is a poor-standard bearer for the GOP at this time in this particular seat, I would also add as an ideological aside as a passionate Republican who has been very unhappy with the massive growth in federal spending the past decade, that with the eyes of the country watching the results of this primary, the election of the ‘insider candidate’ of the Beltway (most readily symbolized by the fact that he proudly lists the endorsement of House Ways & Means Committee Chairman Bill Thomas on his website — Thomas, who gave us the Medicare-Part D debacle and is known as the "King of Pork") it would be an unfortunate message sent to the political watchers – especially the House GOP leadership.
Don’t get me wrong, should Bilbray ultimately become the Congressman, I would be clinging to private assurances from some friends that he was only so moderate before because he used to represent such a swing-district, and will hope for a new Brian Bilbray. But I am cynical enough about politics to not expect someone to change like that. And I also think that there is an opportunity to make a strong statement in this election – a statement that isn’t made with a Bilbray victory — not because of who Brian Bilbray is, but because of what he does. We don’t need the GOP standard-bearer in this seat to be a lobbyist or the sweetheart of a GOP majority that is comfortable with big government — we need someone who will have the gravitas to advocate for ethical-cleanup and, more importantly, will join the efforts of conservative Republicans in the Republican Study Committee and take on the House leadership and who rightly see those GOPers in Congress who won’t cut spending as a bigger problem than the Democrats. Having a majority means there is a responsibility to do something with it.
So, if you know people in the 50th Congressional District, pass along the message, Bilbray may be a nice guy — but he is the candidate who makes the seat the most vulnerable to a June Busby victory and also, of the front-runners, is the least able to go back to Washington, D.C. and use this special election as an opportunity to steer House Republicans in the direction of fiscal restraint.
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