Steve Westly’s talking positive. Phil Angelides is beating up on Arnold. But it’s only a matter of time before they turn their guns on each other.
Both candidates have begun statewide advertising more than three months before the primary. When you have two politicians with that much money and that little self-restraint, the odds of either of them getting through the next hundred days with approval ratings any higher than mine are pretty slim.
If Arnold can pull a Steve McQueen and walk through the Democratic bar fight without getting touched, the three months of an Angelides-Westly bloodbath could give the governor some time to restore his own poll numbers and campaign coffers. But just a few thoughts before the Democraic fratricide gets going:
1) Angelides is using Barbara Boxer as a spokesperson in his first ad. Along with his support for tax increases and death-to-Arnold messaging, this is clearly about positioning him in a Democratic primary. But millions of dollars of Boxer ads could leave a residue that may not be so helpful in a general election. In 2004, California Democrats would have happily nominated Howard Dean for president. Two years later, nominating Angelides for governor would be just as satisfying to them. And to us.
2) If the infrastructure bond does qualify for the June ballot, do the Democratic candidates for governor oppose it even if their own party’s legislative leaders have endorsed it? Under the more likely scenario that the bond ends up on the November ballot, Angelides probably calls for its defeat while Perata and Nunez are campaigning for its passage. Either way, not an ideal scenario for motivating the party faithful…..
3) Will the public employee unions let Schwarzenegger skate through the next three months unscathed? Or will a third line of attack open during the primary season to make sure all three candidates are covered with mud by June? Although they didn’t talk about timing, union leaders made it clear yesterday that they were going to try to repeat their efforts to dismantle Arnold the way they did in last year’s special election. Last year, the governor’s team gambled that the unions’ early ads wouldn’t hurt their candidate, so they husbanded their resources for the fall, at which point it was too late. Steve Schmidt and his band of Bush-Cheney imports may decide it’s worth fighting back earlier this time.
The news media has had great fun watching Republicans arguing with ourselves over the last few weeks. Now, it’s the Democrats’ turn.