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Jon Fleischman

AG race – A tale of two primaries, one credible, one not.

THREE AND A HALF CONTENDERS FOR ATTORNEY GENERAL
I am a huge fan of contested primaries.  I think that the whole argument that a candidate is better off because they have "cleared the field" is a misnomer and misplaced.  Of course the challenge of winning a party primary means that resources will need to be raised and spent in order to do so.  But it is this process that makes a candidate the best they can be for the general election.  A primary hones a candidates speaking skills and fundraising skills.  A primary allows a candidate to understand who really supports them.  A primary also causes candidates to have to make some very real decisions and choices that allow party members to appreciate the candidate who becomes their nominee.  I think the same holds true whether we are talking about candidate for the Democrat or Republican nomination.
 
Arnold Schwarzenegger is a stronger candidate for re-election this year because of his strong contest with Tom McClintock in the recall election.  The ultimate winner of the Angelides v. Westly battle will be a stronger candidate going into the general election for having fought for the Democratic nomination.
 
When we look at the race for Attorney General, there are two contested primaries taking place — one is quite vigorous, and the other apparently nominal, but both will help produce stronger candidates for the November election.

THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
On the Democratic side of the aisle, you have former California Governor Jerry Brown, currently the Mayor of Oakland, facing off against Los Angeles City Attorney Rocky Delgadillo.
 
Brown is the natural front-runner due to his extremely high name ID, and he also benefits from the fact that a lot of the zaniness of his time as Governor is buried in the past…for now.  As Mayor of Oakland, he has revamped his image somewhat, and while still far to the left of the average California voter, he at least is a presentable, cogent candidate.  As of the end of the year, Brown had raised a very respectable $3.65 million bucks, and he sports a lengthy endorsement list topped by none other than United States Senator Dianne Feinstein.
 
The first hispanic elected to citywide office in Los Angeles County in over 100 years, Rocky Delgadillo is an up-and-comer who has put together an impressive campaign himself.  His own cash-on-hand at the end of 2005 was $2.37 million, and he also has an impressive array of supporters including the Speaker of the Assembly and a host of other legislators — and Magic Johnson.
 
These two will be engaged in a very spirited and aggressive primary, and while I would certainly handicap this race as "Advantage: Jerry Brown" — you cannot count out Delgadillo at all.
 
But if you take my opening comments to heart — even if Jerry Brown emerges as the victor, I believe he will be a much more formidable contender in the title match having duked it out in the preliminary round.

THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
 When you look at the GOP side of the Attorney General race, we have an entirely different picture.  The two candidates looking for the GOP nod are State Senator Chuck Poochigian of Fresno and former Bush administration official Pierre Prosper, who hails from Los Angeles.
 
Poochigian has been running a full-bore campaign for years now, and has an impressive amount of accomplishment to show for it.  On the fundraising side, he had $2.64 million raised by the end of the year, and Pooch’s list of supporters and endorsements is so vast that trying to find a prominent GOPer who has NOT endorsed him would be like playing "Where’s Waldo?"  (He’s been endorsed by EVERY GOP State Senator and Assemblymember.)  Poochigian has worked hard on GOP campaigns so long that he is reaping a lot of benefits from his hard work over the years.
 
Last October, another candidate jumped into the GOP primary to face off against the formidable Poochigian – his name is Pierre Prosper.  Prosper was a war-crimes prosecutor in the Bush Administration, and is an articulate candidate to be sure.  That said, his late entry ensured he would be lacking in the fundraising department, but his anemic showing at $53,000 in his first six weeks fell below even my expectations (which weren’t too high).  As for public support — there is no place on Prosper’s website to review endorsements, which probably is a statement in and of itself.
 
Prosper’s candidacy is more of a curiousity than a credible bid for the GOP nomination.  It is hard to tell if Prosper is mounting a "Wally Cleaveresque" run where he just feels that if he travels the state, and champions a good cause, that he will win the nomination, or if he is trying to get his name out there in the political community for a future bid for office.  I am not trying to disparage Prosper, who by all accounts is a good man, I guess I am just at a loss as to what he is trying to achieve in this late, ersatz candidacy.
 
Nevertheless, my original theory still applies here.  Poochigian’s opponent, however nominal, actually helps the Senator’s candidacy.  Prosper’s entry into the race has caused Poochigian’s campaign to leap into action.  A look at the increase in the amount of releases, memos from Pooch’s chief strategist Ken Khachigian, and increased presence only serve to make him more formidable in facing Brown or Delgadillo.
 
I have been contacted by several folks urging me to pen a column on why Prosper should consider running for another office, such as United States Senate.  That’s really not my style.  But I will close with this observation that I received from a member of the California Republican Lawyers Association Board, right after a meeting with Prosper (and right before the CRLA endorsed Poochigian).  My friend said, "He’s a great guy, but I can’t figure out why he is running for statewide office.  He should be seeking a local office, and building up his credibility and support base for bigger things later on."
 
The handicap here: "Overwhelming Advantage: Poochigian."

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