Probably the most telling comment of the budget announcement yesterday was when the governor made the joke about his motorcycle accident. It answered a nagging question in my mind: How much was pillow talk directing state policy? The answer is one I was fairly certain of: a lot.
In case you missed it, the governor’s joke was (as reported by the Sac Bee): "A car pulled out in front of me … I just couldn’t make a decision which way to go. I kne
w if I would turn left that the Republicans will get mad, and I knew if I turned right, my wife will get mad. So I just crashed right into the car. This was the safer thing to do."
Apparently, in this metaphor, balancing the state budget is a turn to the right, a turn that will tick off Maria and the Dems in the Legislature. Why balance the budget when there are so many wonderful programs we can fund? Candidate Schwarzenegger told us that balancing the budget and fixing the state’s structural budget problems would be his top priority in office. Governor Schwarzenegger has seems to have taken a hard left turn, appearing to forget the reason the voters put him in office.
He did have some of the rhetoric right yesterday:
“This budget continues
But I didn’t hear or read anything that sounds like long-term structural reform. As the LA Times put it: “Even without the governor’s new programs, the state was projected to spend more than it takes in through 2010.” We’ve been lucky that revenues took an upswing, but frankly, if the economy dips again, we will be in deep trouble because we’ve not really fixed the auto-spending problems in the state budget.
When the Governor made budget reform and teacher tenure key issues last year, many of his Republicans supporters cheered. But some wondered if perhaps he was biting off too much at once and banking too much on voter goodwill from his election. Frankly, his advisors underestimated (and were unable to defend against) the massive and coordinated attacks from the unions and other special interests. He lost the special election after labor unions spent millions against his reform measures. But given that Schwarzenegger has historically overcome obstacles that may have blocked his road to success, I was sure that he would continue to find a way to work with the Democrats on real budget reform. I thought sure his proposed budget would again propose long-term, structural reforms, putting the Democrats in the position of fighting for more spending in lieu of permanently fixing the state’s fiscal problems. Instead, it looks like the governor has decided to spend his way to reelection.
Last week, Dan Schnur questioned whether conservatives would have responded to the governor’s State of the State speech as negatively if we weren’t still smarting from the Kennedy appointment. Maybe not. But when you install a left-wing activist in the chief of staff’s office and then announce a big spending program that Sen. Carole Migden describes as embracing “the Democratic agenda,” yes, the Republican reaction might be a little tempered. It may make sense to do some long-term infrastructure investment, but why not force the Democrats to agree to real budget reforms before handing them a big “blank check for your union buddies” spending plan. In his State of the State, instead of proposing a specific plan, the governor asked the Democrats for their ideas on how to fix the state’s budget problems. That’s like asking an alcoholic for his favorite Shirley Temple recipe. They’re not interested in budget reform; they just want higher education spending (it’s imporant for the Democrats to keep the CTA happy in election years).
When I supported Schwarzenegger’s bid for governor over over Sen. Tom McClintock and others, it was because I believed that he would make fiscal responsibility and budget reform his main goal in office. Many of us believed that a man who had made so much of his life to date wouldn’t be put off by a setback or two on his way to restoring the state’s financial health. We knew that the Democrats, the teachers, the health and welfare lobby, and the public employee unions would fight him tooth and nail on any long-term structural reforms. There just isn’t any way to fix the budget mess without spreading the pain around. I believed that Schwarzenegger would stick by his principles but, unlike McClintock, would be able to make deals with the Democrats in the legislature that would reach his fiscal goals. I’m now left wondering if that policy priority just wasn’t sexy enough to hold his interest. Enough with reining in state spending—let’s build some new roads!
Schwarzenegger has some great people working for him, especially at the Department of Finance. Perhaps they’re planning on forcing the Democrats to agree to long-term structural reforms before agreeing to the big infrastructure bonds. Let’s hope so.
Schwarzenegger’s up for reelection this year and the conventional wisdom is that his big new spending plan is intended to grab the support of the swing voters in the fall election. I’m no campaign guru, but I truly wonder about the governor’s political strategy. Some political friends assure me that the Republicans who are grumpy about the Kennedy appointment and other issues will end up supporting Schwarzenegger in the general election simply because the alternative would be so bad (Angelides or Westly). I’m not sure I agree. Let’s see, how big of a victory did Senator Ed Zschau enjoy? Oh, that’s right, the conservatives sat on their hands rather than put him in office.
There is a point beyond which Schwarzenegger will not automatically get party support just because he’s the governor and a registered Republican. The “true believers” of the party could easily sit this election out. Schwarzenegger and his political advisers should not take party loyalty for granted in the face of tax increases, minimum wage increases, big bonds and left-wing activist advisors. We don’t need invitations to the smoking tent; we just want the governor to doggedly pursue long-term fiscal reforms, to veto bad legislation and to help other Republicans who are running for office in ’06. On the really important issues, he’s got to take a right turn or two if he wants our support next November.