I’m the last to claim that I am an OC insider, but I think that another look at State Senate seat 35 
might be in order. As much as I respect Cunningham, Probolsky, and Fleischman as consummate players in OC, I also believe that their perspective on the race is biased. You see, I don’t think that these folks have ever gotten over the WAY Tom Harman was elected to the State Assembly. I also think these same folks, all of whom are friends, would rally around any candidate who challenged Harman and they thought was capable of beating him. I think that their opinions require a little balance (disclaimer: we are Tom’s consultants, and while I would never play my entire hand, I feel an obligation to at least show one card to get some balance).
A look at Tom’s actual votes in the Assembly demonstrates his Republican record. Lets use the California Republican Assembly’s rankings over the past few years, as an example. I don’t think
anyone would argue that Spence or the CRA are liberal shills or that they supported Harman in 2000, or that they will endorse him for State Senate in 2006. By my recollection the host of our blog was actually the President of this very conservative "conscience of the Republican Party" when I was a lowly Senate Director.
CRA 2004 (random sample)
Aghazerian 84%
Bates 79%
Campbell 84% (say it ain’t so, John!)
Harman 87%
Cogdill 97%
Garcia 61%
Runner 89%
Maze 97%
CRA 2003 (random sample)
Bates 97%
Benoit 94%
Campbell 100%
Harman 84%
Horton 74%
Plescia 87%
Haynes 100%
Keene 95%
CRA 2002 (not done that year)
CRA 2001 (random sample)
Mountjoy 100%
Briggs 80%
Dickerson 80%
Harman 85%
Leach 83%
Wyland 93%
Hollingsworth 100%
Leonard 93%
On to the facts at hand. Let’s address the issues of conservative values and "momentum" that my peers are so fond of discussing.
First, maybe it’s just me, but I think fiscal conservatism starts at home. Take 10 minutes and research Harkey’s background (thanks OC Blog for actually allowing the discussion) and you’ll hardly find her to be an example of the type of person one would consider fiscally responsible. The excuses for her fiscal responsibility were lame in her last election, and laughable now that the same problems continued. I mean did anyone else get the letter from Point Center Financial already trying to defend her on these issues? Man, you just don’t send those out unless you know everyone under the sun is going to figure out there is real trouble on the horizon…
Second, take another 10 minutes exploring Harkey’s record and you’ll see that people who throw stones about fiscal and tax related issues should really make sure they don’t live in glass houses. This partially explains today’s quote from John Campbell on Harkey as a defender of Proposition 13 and homeowners. Hint: this is a defensive quote. I’m sure we’ll be seeing it again and again in the mailbox in a couple months – or maybe not because of those nasty new federal regulations prohibiting a host of activities by federal officials in state races.
I mean really… it’s pretty clear Harkey’s qualification for "machine candidate" in this race is her checkbook rather than her ideology. They boys were desperate and they figured with no elected official willing to step up to the plate, she was their best shot.
Second, on the topic of "momentum" – let’s actually look at some facts:
First, more than one poll now shows Harman with around 25% SOLID (much more in some polls which consider cross-over) and Harkey somewhere around the same numbers I would have if I decided to run. His positives are 9:1 or higher. Flat out, he is well-liked and has represented folks in this area for a long time. Voters like him. Further, there will probably be a Democrat in the race who gets a certain large chunk of the vote. And who knows who else is looking? It’s no great secret that some of the grassroots in OC are not satisfied with the hand-picked machine candidate who has no background of GOP participation unless you count a 10k check to the failed Border Police Initiative, and that if Alexandria Coronado or anyone else with some real credentials decides to jump in, Harkey’s looking to come in fourth behind the Democrat.
Second, Harkey’s supporters say she’s made of money. Great. She better be willing to spend a lot more than the 500k I hear bantered around. After what she sunk into the Dana Point race, maybe she is. Heck, if she is paying Jimmy Camp what he is worth that’s a large chunk gone right then and there. And what will Harman show? I think folks might want to remember he’s totally revamped his finance shop and isn’t exactly a pauper himself.
Third, Endorsements. OK OC blog reporters we got the hint – every time Harkey gets a machine endorsement her momentum is skyrocketing and Tom is moribund. Got it.