San Diego City Republican Mayoral Jerry Sanders firmly defeated Democrat Donna Frye last night, beating her 53.87 to 46.13 (a 7.74 point spread). At this point in the game, Frye’s loss is not a huge surprise. None of the several citywide polls I had access to ever showed that Frye could expand beyond the mid 40’s. And the reality is if she had stayed the same "liberal surfer Democrat" Frye that had originally been elected to City Council she probably would never have hit the high 30’s in what is still a center right city.
Instead, Frye spent the last two years playing the part of the "outside reformer" tapping the 
discontent and disgust that voters of all stripes have with a government they view is venal, corrupt, incompetent, and tied to shadowy lobbyists and special interests. This allowed her to vastly increase her numbers among voters who were disgusted with city government and who might not otherwise have considered voting for a Democrat candidate. And as long as she stayed the course and ran as a populist shine-light-in-the-backrooms-open-the-books candidate she had at least a fighting chance. But when she came out with a billion some odd dollar tax increase plan for solving the city’s fiscal ills a few weeks ago she showed her true colors and her possibility of winning evaporated.
Much of business community – Republican or Democrat – did not want Frye and her sometimes off the wall policy positions holding the new strong mayor office. And they really poured it on financially. Sanders and his independent expenditure allies were up on tv weeks before Frye (who as far as I can tell never went up, relying instead on public employee union ads) and they simply dominated the mailbox. On the other hand, Frye appeared to be trying to run a grassroots city council campaign expanded throughout the city, without the organization to make it happen, and to hope that Democrat turnout would surge due to the initiatives. Still, with these disadvantages, her outsider status and the discontent of the electorate got her some 46 points.
Perhaps one of the most interesting aspects of this campaign and the surrounding crisis, is that there are still establishment types – usually lobbyists and city politicians – as of last night at Golden Hall (one of the few election night locations that mixes angry and excited Republicans and Democrats and liberal amounts of booze, with predictable results) still not understanding the major sea change that has occurred and is occurring in the City of San Diego. Maybe to help, I’ll spell it out: any politician in the City of San Diego who puts insiders (including lobbyists or other city politicians) and their needs first is writing his or her own ticket to nowheresville. The friendship of insiders, the free dinners, and the utterly indefensible votes just don’t resonate well with angry voters. Of course, though, politicians feel dependent on the money of insiders. But the truth is the $250 checks from the majority of insiders really don’t help enough to make alienating votes worthwhile. Real soon, the more diligent San Diego politicians, as some have, will understand that by winning over voters with a populist message they can get out of thralldom to the insiders. And better yet, with voters actually approving of a politician, the insiders have to jump on board because the politician actually feels he has the power to say yes or no.
Now comes the battle for control of the San Diego City Council – vital if Sanders is going to make real progress on a reform agenda (see earlier blog). And ground zero is the 2nd District, a coastal seat that takes in downtown and trends center left. Last night’s results: reformer Kevin Faulconer 34.73, Bustamonte aide-de-camp Gonzalez 25.31, independent Chase 8.80, Democrat Community College Boardmember Grosch 6.30, conservative Rutherford 5.15, and some twelve other candidates the remainder. This is going to be a nail-biter. In the largely Democrat 8th district machine candidate Hueso came up with 38.71, reformer Acle with 18.48, and 7 other candidates with the remainder. The attacks on Hueso for his brotherly ties to convicted Councilman "Boss" Inzunza were fairly tame this time compared to what I expect in the next several weeks. He may be vulnerable.
The election will be held January 10, and the campaigns started this morning around 6am with local tv interviews. So much for the holidays.