Bob Novak’s Weekly Political Report has a section today where he makes his predictions on Ballot Measure Mania across America…

Here is what he has to say:

California: The special recall election that brought Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) to power in 2003 was the clearest demonstration to date that all public polling in California is basically worthless. Polls on Schwarzenegger’s slate of ballot propositions yield such wildly different results — one proposition approaches two-thirds support in one poll and fails miserably in others — that we will ignore them completely. We anticipate, first of all, that non-partisan redistricting (Prop 77) and state spending caps (Prop 76) will fail, having taken a terrible beating from campaigning members of Congress and unions. Likely Fail.

Schwarzenegger’s other two propositions — on delayed teacher tenure (Prop 74) and paycheck protection for union members (Prop 75) — are much harder to call. They really could go either way, particularly if pro-lifers show up in large enough numbers to vote for Prop 73 (see below). The correlation between supporters of 73 and the other propositions is very high. Still, ballot propositions must always be presumed to fail unless they show strong support. Leaning Fail.

Despite fierce last-minute efforts and millions spent by Planned Parenthood, a separate referendum requiring parental notification for minors seeking abortions (Prop 73) will probably pass thanks to a strong effort to court Hispanics. Leaning Pass.

Maine: After being struck down by the so-called "people’s veto" in two previous elections, Maine‘s homosexual rights law will remain on the books this time. The people’s veto, Question One, appears poised to fail as demographics have changed considerably in coastal Maine over the last seven years. The leading proponent of the ballot measure also made a fool of himself during a recent debate when he tried to shout down several hecklers. Leaning Fail.

Ohio: State Issue 4, which, like California‘s Proposition 77, would adopt non-partisan redistricting, may be the most important item on any ballot tomorrow. It would be a major blow to the House Republican majority, as it would require that districts be drawn primarily so that they are competitive. But the measure’s opponents have made a strong case that the formula is flawed. Other factors, such as compactness and the preservation of communities of interest, would be sacrificed for competitiveness. Leaning Fail.

Texas: Voters will easily approve a referendum that adds a prohibition on same-sex marriage to their state constitution. Likely Pass.

In return for posting Novak’s analysis on the FR Blog, I will provide this link so that you can sign up for Novak’s free weekly mailing (no telling what other ads you get in your inbox with the sign-up, but it is free…)

This entry was posted on Monday, November 7th, 2005 at 12:00 am and is filed under Blog Posts.