FIELD POLL SKEWED TO THE LEFT
I spoke last week on this commentary page about the insatiable appetite that the media has for these last-minute polls. Today there are many stores on the release of the "Field Poll." Let me start by reminding everyone that in order to accurately poll the electorate, you need to be able to figure out WHO IS GOING TO VOTE so that you can try to poll a REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLE in order to be accurate. I haven’t found anyone yet who can tell me with any degree of certainty who it is that is going to turn out for this Special Election. There are so many different factors at play, from voter fatigue to trying to analyze which interests will mobilize for particular measures. So, before you get all concerned about these latest polling stories, remember this admonision.
Relative to the Field Poll itself, I would share these keen observations from a friend and expert on California politics… [I won’t cite him by name because I don’t know if he wants the ‘notoriety’]
Field samples counties based on POPULATION not on propensity to vote. Consequently areas like San Francisco are vastly over-represented, and counties like Kern and Riverside are under represented in their samples. They tend to narrow their focus as an election draws near, making them look more accurate, but ultimately these early polls of theirs are ALWAYS tilting way off to the left.
FR Blogger Bill Whalen opines on the Field Poll here.
DICK ARMEY OPPOSES PROPOSITION 77
Anyone who reads the FlashReport regularly knows that I not only support Proposition 77, the Fair Redistricting Measure on the ballot next week, but I support it overwhelmingly. I am so frustrated that our GOP majority in the United States Congress has presided over unprecidented growth in federal spending that my latest reason for supporting 77 is that I believe it will result in more opportunities for GOP ‘pickups’ in our House delegation. But I am especially intriguedi by the idea that to do so, our incumbents will have districts that are pretty good, but not ‘rock-solid’ like they are now. What will this mean? It will mean that the Congressmen will have to be ‘in touch’ with their grassroots base of support. Don’t get me wrong, we do have some great Congressmen who are part of the Republican Study Committee (my former boss, Ed Royce, comes to mind immediately) that are doing the right thing. But when we have Bill Thomas porking out, we have Duncan Hunter opposing across-the-board-spending cuts, etc.etc…. It is easy to get discouraged. Back to Dick Armey — I promised my good friend, Frank Hill, that I would try to feature a piece presenting his point of view on 77 (he is opposed). This will be the ONE TIME you get this, but read Dick Armey’s passionate opposition to this particular redistricting measure right here.
Take care, and have a great day!
Jon