GOP Itching For Another Dem Mayor’s Seat
SAN BERNARDINO — Republicans are looking to take care of business in the City of San Bernardino. That is, despite the fact that the local business community is largely favoring a Democrat Superior Court judge for Mayor on November 8, while fire, law enforcement and other unions are supporting a long-serving, controversial elected city attorney with no current party affiliation. The county party is targeting the Mayor’s race hoping to nudge an underdog Republican Councilman into a February runoff and add to its track record of success in local, "non-partisan" elections.
Chas Kelley, 36, is a Councilman representing the city’s affluent Fifth Ward. An electronics technician married with four children, he’s been a Republican Party activist since he was old 
enough to vote (he still barely looks old enough to vote). Kelley unseated an incumbent two years ago in a grassroots campaign. Despite the fact that he’ll likely be outspent by a two-to-one margin by both of his major opponents — 18-year elected City Attorney Jim Penman, an independent, and Superior Court Judge Patrick Morris, a Democrat — Kelley believes that Republican Party identification, absentee voter turnout, grassroots organization and old-fashioned shoe leather will give him a real chance at getting into a runoff. The county party has already spent upwards of $20,000 on direct mail and phone calls identifying Kelley to Republicans as their party’s candidate. And the party could spend a lot more, considering its $350,000 bank account, which compares favorably to the local Democratic Party’s $6,000 fund balance.
Kelley, who will probably raise $60,000 against his opponents’ $130,000-plus each, is relying heavily on his popularity in his council district as well as strong backing from fellow Republican Councilman Neil Derry, a county party vice-chairman who represents the city’s other affluent district, the Fourth Ward. Spending much of every day walking door to door, Kelley figures by the end of the campaign to have walked most precincts within the Fourth and Fifth Wards, which combined contain 19,000 households. He’s placed 500 yard signs and ordered 500 more.
"The Republican numbers in the 4th and 5th Wards are there for Chas to pull this thing out and get into the runoff, especially considering Republican turnout history in those districts," said Adam Aleman, the county GOP’s executive director. Aleman added that the last time there was a mayor’s race in San Bernardino in 2001 there was 31.9 percent turnout in those two districts, while the other five wards combined saw a turnout of only 23.9 percent. Also, Republican registration in the city has grown from 32.45 percent to 36.48 percent since the last mayor’s race.
Morris is represented by Riverside-based O’Reilly Public Relations, Kelley by Sacramento-based Chris Jones. Penman has no consultant, preferring to do surgery on himself. However, the local Police Officers Association will probably more than match for Penman what the GOP is doing for Kelley. But Kelley has some horses too. Kelley and Derry represent the Republican part of San Bernardino. When viewed strictly by voter turnout, their two districts represent a plurality of votes in a city election. However, Judge Morris has the backing of Demo Congressman Joe Baca and the incumbent Democrat Mayor, Judith Valles. And Morris is a well-known resident of the so-called North End area represented by Kelley and Derry. Morris has Baca mailers going to Dems. And for the GOPers, he has mail from popular Republican Congressman Jerry Lewis, who represents the northern part of San Bernardino. These factors will presumably deaden somewhat the impact of Kelley’s and Derry’s efforts in the north. Still, Kelley is first on the ballot, and he has the title of Councilman. He also has a disarming, affable personality with a common man’s appeal, youthful exuberance and an eagerness to listen that make him a formidable precinct walker.
Derry is adamant in his support of his Council colleague. "We need new leadership," he said. "We don’t need these two old-guard, country club lawyers (Penman and Morris)." Derry also criticized Morris’ ideology. "Morris is a Jerry Brown judge. On issues important to Republicans, he’s not just liberal — he’s way out in left field." Morris runs the local drug court, and has been attacked by Penman for letting a two-time felon go on a third-strike charge who was later sentenced to 25 years to life for committing 26 burglaries while he was out for only a year. "Neither Penman or Morris have any legislative experience," Derry said. "They haven’t put police on the streets. Chas has. He’s gotten a new police station built, and added 10 more police officers in this year’s budget."
Derry says getting Kelley into a runoff is the key. "If he makes it to a runoff, Chas wins," Derry said, "Because whoever loses between Penman and Morris will endorse Chas. Penman and Morris hate each other. That’s their only focus." Derry said Penman and Morris are hitting each other hard in the mail and with phone calls, and that it may suppress turnout, which would favor the Republican Kelley. He added that Kelley could emerge as the only credible alternative candidate. "Plus the unions will go with Chas if Penman loses, and the business community will go with Chas if Morris loses," Derry added.
With a Kelley win, the local GOP is looking to build on its success last June when, with heavy party support, the City of Ontario elected its first Latino Republican Mayor, Paul Leon, to replace former Republican Mayor Gary Ovitt, who had been elected to the Board of Supervisors. While there has been pressure from Morris supporters to get the county party to go "low-key" in their support for Kelley, the prospect of another high-profile mayoralty following the Ontario success was too much for the local GOP to resist. Ontario and San Bernardino actually have few similarities, other than significant Latino numbers and heavy Democrat numbers (Ontario’s registration numbers are at 45% Dem, 36% Rep. Still, Leon won the mayor’s seat by a 60-40 margin over Democratic former city attorney Sam Crowe. San Bernardino’s numbers are at 48% Dem, 34% Rep.). Ontario is in the booming West End, while the county seat of "San Berdoo" lies in the more economically challenged East Valley, whose former Norton Air Force Base faces withering competition from nearby Riverside’s "realigned" March Air Reserve Base in its redevelopment efforts — the most recent example of which was the decision by international freight carrier DHL to locate a regional hub there. But significant new home construction in northern Fontana, Ontario and San Bernardino is making those traditionally blue-collar-Democrat cities more affluent, and their councils more Republican — in the case of Fontana and Ontario with solid majorities. The Party also has a registration edge of 33,000 in the county, and the City of Chino recently flipped to the Republican column, also with an elected GOP mayor, like most of the county’s 24 cities. Having recently nabbed traditionally Democratic mayoral seats in Fontana and Ontario, the GOP can almost taste the "strong" mayor’s seat in San Bernardino. "The party definitely has an opportunity in a city (San Bernardino) that’s traditionally been Democratic," said Jones. "Republicans are starting to compete in places we haven’t been able to compete in a long time."
One final note: Since the last mayoral election, absentee voting in the city of San Bernardino has gone up from 30.2 percent to 35.8 percent — a factor that favors Republicans. The increase is even greater in the 4th and 5th wards. "The absentee ballot campaign was a significant factor in the Ontario win, and it’s being duplicated in San Bernardino," Aleman said. "In the Ontario race, 79 percent of absentee voters cast ballots, versus an election day turnout of only nine percent. We think the absentees will be half or more of the vote — at least 40 to 45 percent. There’s a big surge in absentees statewide and locally." (Read a recent SFChron article the AB surge here.)