Prominent California Democrat strategist and consultant Garry South predicts Republicans pick up the United States Senate in 2012… From today’s Wall Street Journal Political Diary E-mail…

Webb Exit Tilts Senate Map How much trouble are Democrats in as a result of Virginia Sen. Jim Webb’s decision to retire in a normally Republican state? A great deal if, you listen to Democratic consultant Garry South. "It would take divine intervention to save Democratic control of the Senate in 2012," Mr. South told Politico.com. "Neither party can defend 23 Senate seats in a single election year."… Read More

The last two redistricting efforts in California have brought major changes to the Congressional delegation.

The 1992 election saw the election of Lynn Woolsey, Anna Eschoo, Buck McKeon, Xavier Becerra, Maxine Waters, Jane Harman, Ken Calvert, and Bob Filner. Next year will mark twenty years in Congress for this group. Harman would be an exception because of the break she took to unsuccessfully run for Governor but then came back a few years latter but now she is planning to resign mid term.

In 2002 we saw Dennis Cardoza, Devin Nunes, Adam Schiff, and Linda Sanchez go to Washington.

Although every member of the California Congressional delegation has been elected since 1972 (Stark) almost one quarter came to Congress for the first time following these two redistricting cycles.

My prediction is that even though reapportionment did not add any Congressional seats in California retirement will provide at least eight new Members of Congress from California in 2013.

The following members will be 65 or older in 2012. Wally Herger 67, Dan Lungren 66, Doris Matsui 68, Lynn Woolsey 75, George Miller 67, Nancy Pelosi 72, Barbara… Read More

For the first time in 25 years, the American Conservative Union, noted for it’s "coin of the realm" annual Congressional ratings and for being the lead organization in the annual Conservative Political Action Conference has a new Chairman. David Keene, a former national chairman of Young Americans for Freedom, took the reins of ACU in the early 1980s after the prior Chairman, Congressman Bob Bauman (another former YAF national chairman) resigned after a personal scandal. Keene greatly grew CPAC over the years and maintained high regards for the credibility of the ACU ratings. Now David is scheduled to take over soon as the new President of the National Rifle Association, and by his own admission states he just can’t chair two major organizations at the same time. So, he resigned at the ACU board of directors meeting in Washington, D.C. at the Marriott Wardman Park on upper Connecticut, N.W., and today the Chairmanship opened up for the first time in three decades, during the board meeting.

Elected without opposition, but not unanimously, was Al Cardenas of Florida. Al is a former chairman of… Read More

From today’s Wall Street Journal Political Diary E-mail… … Read More

My wife Janice and I are in Washington, D.C. visiting old haunts (she is a veteran of the city, too, having served as Deputy Chief Counsel of the Republican National Committee), and I’m preparing for CPAC and the American Conservative Union Board meeting later today.

We visited the Pentagon Memorial for the victims of 9/11 for the first time yesterday. There is no more sobering justification for our continued presence in Afghanistan than this spot. Here are a few pictures of the grounds:

Benches pointing to the Pentagon each memorialize a person killed on the plane. Benches pointing out from the Pentagon memorialize a person killed inside the Pentagon during the 9/11 attack on our country.… Read More

On Superbowl Sunday the "Republican Caucus" of the California Teachers Association (CTA] invited me to speak. How could I resist? When the arrangements were made neither I nor the CTA was aware that February 6 would be date of the Superbowl.

Showing up at the Bonaventure Hotel in downtown Los Angeles at noon I found a 30 foot buffet spread worthy of the hotel’s reputation. A little over the top was the freezer full of Haagan Daaz ice cream. Several hundred CTA union leaders were meeting in the morning. At noon the group divided into various caucuses.

In public speaking, you learn to try to identify with the audience. I explained I earned my lifetime Teaching Credential from CSU Northridge and I currently teach Ethics at Cleveland Chiropractic College — year round.

I offered three points for these union leaders to consider:

From today’s Wall Street Journal Political Diary E-mail… Reagan Belongs to the World SIMI VALLEY, Calif. — The celebration of Ronald Reagan’s 100th birthday on Sunday was marked by a video tribute during the Super Bowl along with extravaganzas held at both the Reagan Library and Reagan Ranch near here. But that’s only the beginning of the many events to be held this year to mark the Gipper’s centennial. A Reagan statue will be raised at the Washington, D.C., airport that bears his name. The National Archives is hosting a display of Reagan memorabilia. And a new stamp will be unveiled in his honor Thursday. … Read More

Before people get too carried away on Congressional District 36 (Harman) and how this is a potential pick up district for Republicans please consider the following —

2010 November

Jane Harman (Democrat) — 59.7% Mattie Fein (Republican) — 34.7% Herb Peters (Libertarian) – 5.6%

The registration in this coastal district is pretty tough.

Democrat registration is high at 45.33% with Republicans at 27.57%. I can’t remember the last time a Republican in California won a partisan seat where Republican registration has been below 30% but I think it was Bruce McPherson in a special election against a flawed candidate in 1993.

This is a district that will need to have the right match up for us to have any chance.

The timing for this seat is not good. When the seat gets redrawn later this year by the commission this is a seat that could end up being one that Republicans have a shot at. There are plenty of Republicans in this area of the state… they are just split up among several districts.… Read More